Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/22 - Mission Impossible Edition…

Good Morning,

Theme Music, Maestro, if you please:


Stocks continue lower this morning with the dollar slightly higher, bonds higher, oil higher, gold & silver higher, and food commodities continue lower after breaking down from their prior ranges.

For those worried about gold, here is the daily chart once again showing that the primary and secondary uptrends are still very much in tact:



Nothing highlights what I’ve been saying about the impossible math more than the “Super Committee’s” failure to even take a bite from it. Remember, they were tasked with “saving” $1.2 trillion over 10 years, but that would not have stopped the deficits from growing, it would have only slightly slowed their growth. And that was pure fantasy because any projections they were working with were simply false as they still don’t understand the exponential function of math. The following video series should be mandatory for all politicians, economists, accountants, heck everyone:



When I say impossible math underlies our economy, impossible is exactly what I mean. Not just in the United States, but in Europe and throughout the developed world. The root of the impossible math is the way in which our money comes into being as a debt that is owed to private individuals. You see, the Super Committee cannot stop making interest payments on the now $15,000,000,000,000 debt because they are living and fed from campaign money that comes from the people who profit from those insane interest charges.

There is only one way that the Super Committee can actually accomplish their impossible mission, and that is to end the “Fed” and begin producing sovereign, non debt money. Of course doing so unrestrained would be another problem, thus they would have to create checks and balances such as are contained within Freedom’s Vision.

Any politician who says they can “create jobs” while remaining within the central banker box is simply high, they do not understand the impossible math and how the economy is saturated with debt. There is only one way to create jobs going forward, and it involves clearing out the debt saturated condition, which must be accomplished one way or the other – any plan that fails to clear the debt will fail.

Of course we still haven’t addressed step one that prevents any “Super duper stupendous committee” from success – step #1 is to restore the proper rule of law. You start down that path by prosecuting the FRAUD, which is still rampant.

Speaking of fraudsters, I have a personal message for the stinking pile of manure that is Newt Gingrich… Go F___ yourself, Newt. And while you’re at it, it is YOU who should get a job and take a bath, I can smell the immoral narcissistic stench clear across the country! For you to say that it was not the Occupiers that paid for the parks they are occupying is not only patently false, as they are tax payers who most certainly did help to pay for that park, but you illustrate exactly how it is you and your overweight pandering to central bankers that proves you would accomplish exactly nothing except deepening the problems America faces. It is YOU who needs to go get a freakin’ job, you A-hole. Perhaps a little manual labor would be good for the soul, try it. By the way, you are now clearly in the running for the Economic Edge Asshat of the Year Award – congratulations.

What a field of candidates. Newt’s immoral words and life deeds may not land him in prison, but I know that Cain probably deserves a very long prison stay indeed, and would love to see that other Asshat Award contender on trial for his sexual assaults and for using his position of power over women. Running for President? He belongs behind bars least his next victim be one of our daughters!

The first revision for Q3 GDP came in much lower than expected at 2.0%, down from 2.5%. Note in Econocomplicit’s commentary how they try to spin this positive, yet also note how the growth figures were lowered, but the inflation figures were not:
Highlights
The economy got a moderate downgrade for the third quarter but the downgrade largely came from where there is the least damage to forward momentum. The Commerce Department's second estimate for third quarter GDP growth was bumped down to an increase of 2.0 percent annualized, compared to the initial estimate of 2.5 percent and to second quarter growth of 1.3 percent. Analysts had forecast a revision to 2.4 percent annualized.

The downward revision primarily was due to a downward revision to inventory investment-from plus $5.4 billion initially to minus $8.5 billion. This revision is the equivalent of a 0.43 percentage point lower contribution to GDP growth.

Minor downward revisions also were made to personal consumption, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and government purchases. Net exports were revised up to minus $400.7 billion from minus $409.4 billion.

The net effects of revisions to inventories and other components (notably net exports) leave demand numbers still relatively healthy. Final sales of domestic product were unrevised from the initial estimate of 3.6 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were down to 3.0 percent from the original estimate of 3.2 percent annualized.

Economy-wide inflation was unrevised at 2.5 percent and compares to the second quarter rise of 2.5 percent. The market median forecast was for 2.5 percent.

Turning to current quarter strengths and weakness (as opposed to component revisions), the economy was still gaining modest momentum. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in PCE and in nonresidential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in exports that were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment.

On the news, equity futures dipped modestly. Nonetheless, the key points today are that there is no significant change in underlying demand in the third quarter and recent monthly data indicate further strengthening.



Of course that is all bumpkis. Real GDP is not only negative, but it is extremely negative. And our GDP is overstated by 40% or more because they count our deficit spending, debt owed to private bankers, as “production.” That means that GDP is really a measurement of our money(ness), not of production. Below is a chart showing supposed GDP along with our national debt in grey, and below that all the current “Fed” measurements of money supply – note how all the money adds up to debt, since all our money is debt! Then notice how our national debt, which is now $15 trillion not the $14 trillion depicted there as they can’t update their charts fast enough to keep pace (so I extended the line to reflect that), is now outpacing our GDP:

GDP/National Debt/Money Supplies (money is debt):


Now then, when you take our GDP and divide it by our money supply, you quickly understand that something not good is happening – namely that the amount of “production” for a given amount of money is diminishing rapidly:

GDP Divided by MZM:


Because our money is debt, we are boxed in. Add more money, add more debt = impossible math. Pay down your debt, you have less money = impossible math. How hard is this to understand for crying out loud!

Of course there are savvy people in politics and in banking who fully get this. It is BY DESIGN. Debt is their tool that is used to control YOU. Pointing out the impossible situation of the system they create and perpetuate does nothing until we are fully ready to remove them from power. To do that all you must do is no longer consent to their lies! I, Nathan Martin, do not consent to their lies! Say it and repeat it, it will literally set you free.

Now let’s examine today’s announcement that Corporate Profits rose by 6.5% year over year in Q3, up from the .3% prior!
Highlights
Corporate profits in the third quarter grew to $1.507 trillion annualized-up from $1.470 trillion in the fourth quarter (previously $1.470) trillion). Profits in the third quarter rose an annualized 10.3 percent, following a 4.3 percent gain the quarter before (previously 4.3 percent). Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis advanced 6.5 percent, compared to up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Of course these “Corporate Profits” are complete nonsense too! They are there only due to the FRAUD. Remove the fraud, and corporate profits vanish. I’m talking about all the fraud, the mark-to-fantasy accounting, the offloading of stench filled debt onto Fannie and Freddie, the corporate shell games that are being played, the rating agency fraud, the “war on drugs” money laundering, etc., etc..

As proof of that, below is a chart showing the parabolic nature of corporate profits – they rose as the fraud rose, then for a very short time mark-to-market accounting was reimposed, profits crashed. They used their make money from nothing power to buy off Congress and the FASB, and BINGO, next thing you know mark-to-fantasy is back, and so are parabolic corporate profits:

Corporate Profits:


Gee, did your home value recover like that? How about your retirement plan? Does your budget look better than ever? How about your cost of living? To me, that chart is symbolic of the Occupy movement’s cry.

Once again, since it they who want to deceive us all with “productivity” propaganda, it’s time to revisit that very apropos Kennedy quote:
“Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross national product...if we should judge the United States of America by that - counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”
― Robert F. Kennedy


We are the many
You are the few

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?

Panic is spreading says Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. Steen eyes the perfect storm including a potential "Chapter 11" call for European banks.

Via Email
This morning there is too much bad news.

US Super Committee failed to find the 1.2 trillion US Dollar needed to stop the automatic spending cuts being initiated from 2012, but the more acute problem being the expiration of the payroll tax and the emergency benefits by year-end 2011. It now looks less likely a deal can be struck as Congress now have even less incentive to find common ground ahead of next year US election.

The immediate impact could be a full one percent slower growth in the US – Goldman Sachs provided this excellent graph detailing the potential negative impact: The number could be -2.0% to -0.5% in first two quarter of 2012 – again underlining our believe in an economic perfect storm as the most likely scenario:



click on chart for sharper image

The debt crisis is taking a new negative turn – as seen in prior liquidity crisis’ the EMG Europe bloc comes under attack and this morning there are two extreme worrisome news pieces out:

Hungary seeks Aid from EU, IMF: Hungary have submitted formal request to the EU and IMF for help. Hungary feels this is needed to secure risk-free growth for the economy – talks should be concluded in early 2012.

Austrian banks told to limit lending to the east
: Basically, they need and want to protect their AAA and they seems to believe, rather naively, that the best way is to cut lending to the their EEC bloc lending. Again the credit-cake is getting smaller.

Finally, another core country Belgium may lose its caretaker PM – Belgium been without elected government since June 2010! – the political landscape in Europe getting slightly concerning:

  • Greece – Technocrat – non-elected Government – Opposition still refuses to sign EU letter.
  • Italy – Technocrat- non-elected
  • Spain – new majority government, but on the basis of big no to austerity from prior government, not exactly vote of confidence to fiscal restraint.
  • France- Election next year – Marine Le Pen could surprise in the polls, as the French election is two rounds. She is making heavy anti-EU noises and starting to raise her campaign
  • Belgium – Belgian chief government negotiator asks to quit.

Keep an eye on Belgium rates today – they have risen from 3.6% in early October to now close to the magic 5.00 which spells trouble, with capital T…

Conclusion

Market bounced of the 1180-00 target for now, but a test still looks like on the down-side as 2012 more and more looks like one big perfect storm both politically and economically. This is not the time to be brave. This week will see dramatic revisions to US growth based on Super Committee failure, and same for Europe as PMI will show lacking confidence. This is now full blown “confidence crisis” – there is increasingly a need for my call for "Chapter 11" for Europe.

Safe travels,

Steen Jakobsen | Chief Economist
Chapter 11 in early 2012?

On his blog, Steen asks Is Europe set to declare a Chapter 11 in early 2012?
Europe may need to pull a Chapter 11 – a US-style bankruptcy, which would permit a market shutdown and Euro Zone reorganization before reopening for business.

The EU desperately needs a break from market pressures in order to allow the political apparatus to really gather its forces and finally move Europe and its debt crisis ahead of the curve. Here we are just a couple of weeks after the feeble attempt to apply an EFSF plaster on the problem and we’re already back to Square One: the EU debt crisis has reached the point at which none of the readily available tools or institutions are sufficient to match the magnitude of the crisis. This dictates the need for an out-of-the-box solution.

EU policy makers played the extend and pretend game for as long as they could - but now the writing is on the wall: popular outrage is on the rise and putting increasing pressure on the political process - as we are seeing increased demonstrations and grass-root activity taking over both the political agenda and the media. And markets are now balking as empty promises and now a real lack of funds are seeing bond yields beginning to spike out of control. The self-reinforcing cycle of downgrades and austerity and recession are taking us to the very brink of a full scale Crisis 2.0.

It’s important to point out that politicians will only do something drastic in a true state of emergency, so one catalyst we’ve yet to see to prompt action is a serious drop in the stock market.

The extend-and-pretend policies that have continued through 16 EU Summits have only led us to a Catch-22 in which everything that is done with good intentions (or not) is to the detriment of something else.

So what form might a Chapter 11 for the Euro Zone take? It is increasingly likely that some kind of total “bank holiday” is enforced to put a stop to market pressures – and then to reinforce and relaunch a stricter EU Growth and Stability Pact as a price for cranking up the ECB printing presses to full speed.

Before accusing me of lunacy on my idea of a market holiday, it’s important to point out that banking holidays are not without precedent. In 1933, President Roosevelt declared a bank holiday that ran for an entire week in March of 1933, during which he passed the Emergency Banking Act and the Federal Reserve moved to supply currency to banks.

After 9/11 we also had a “forced” bank holiday. The banking panic of 1907 saw massive illiquidity and bank closings as can be seen in this excellent link. The main point for 1907 however remains: The biggest and most solvent banks survived, the small ones failed – 73 banks failed but it created a rebirth which catapulted the stock market higher.

Germany and Northern Europe understand that printing money at the ECB will not solve anything, as it would only throw more debt on an already back-breaking load. But if this bloc countries wants to buy time to implement stronger constitutional changes, the most path is a quid-pro-quo solution in which Germany gets a stronger Growth and Stability Pact implemented, not only into EU law, but also ratified as part of a new standard for restrictive fiscal policies with built-in debt breaks for all individual countries. Germany gets it “discipline leads to growth” for the long term, while the Keynesians get their “liquidity fix” from the ECB.

In short, the main issues are the following (in no particular order of prioritization):

  • Time is up – the market needs solutions, not plans for plans. The timeline for Political Europe is way too slow for market comfort.
  • Interbank funding is starting to freeze over. Every day sees risk factors pointing higher and a systemic liquidity crisis could develop at any time.
  • Financing gap. EFSF has 440 EUR 440 billion (though it has never been funded). Some estimate that Italy and Spain need EUR 400-500 billion per year to refinance and recapitalize its banks – per year! Talk about mismatch of supply and demand.
  • Lack of constitutional frame-work to establish or enact changes.
  • Democratic and constitutional rights are close to being violated, if not in the letter of the law, then certainly in the eyes of the voters.

As we head into 2012, I am increasingly convinced that we have an almost perfect economic and political storm brewing on the horizon.
Germany Will Not Go Along

The obvious flaw in the idea of a Europe-wide bank holiday is Germany.

The German supreme court has ruled there must be a voter referendum for these kinds of changes. Would Merkel risk putting the German Supreme court to that test? I highly doubt it.

Individual countries, notably Greece, are another matter as I have mentioned a couple of times recently. For further discussion, please see...

 

Greece is at the breaking point now if they do not get the next tranche of money, and it still is not clear they will get it. If Greece left would Portugal be far behind? It's hard to say for sure.

Might Italy decide on a bank holiday? Yes, that is possible too, just not as likely, at least right now. It may be a different matter after the next election.

The ideal solution would be for Germany to leave. Might that involve a Eurozone-wide bank holiday? Certainly, just not yet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hungary seeks Aid from EU, IMF; Austrian Banks Told to Limit Lending to the East; No Government in Belgium Since June 2010, Negotiator Quits

Credit stress continues in Europe with a spotlight on several countries, none of the typical culprits.

Hungary Seeks Aid From EU, IMF

The Wall Street Journal reports Hungary Seeks Aid From EU, IMF
The European Commission said Monday that it has received a formal request from Hungary to receive financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

"The Commission will examine the authorities' request in close consultation with EU member states and the IMF," the commission, which has antitrust powers in the EU, said in a statement.

In a separate statement, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde also said it has "received a request from the Hungarian authorities for possible financial assistance."

The ministry said it expects to start the negotiations before Christmas, with a new agreement to be concluded in the initial months of 2012. It didn't disclose details on the nature of the requested IMF support. The government would seek a deal with the IMF on an insurance contract to reassure investors and to allow Hungary to raise the capital it needs, it said.

No Government in Belgium Since June 2010, Negotiator Quits

Belgium is still without a government and has been since June 2010. Every time there has been a hint of a breakthrough, the setup collapses. Fed up with lack of progress, the Belgian chief government negotiator asks to quit
BRUSSELS: The lead negotiator in Belgium’s drawn-out government formation tendered his resignation on Monday after talks for a 2012 budget ground to a halt, a move which threatened to derail the country’s near 18-month search for a new administration.

Elio Di Rupo, leader of the French-speaking Socialists, had attempted to form a government based on a six-party coalition of Dutch and French-speaking Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats but there was little common ground on how to make the budget cuts mandated by the European Union.

Parties in the debt-heavy country had sought to save 11.3 billion euros and keep the country’s deficit below 2.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in line with EU rules, but could not agree how to divide the deficit reduction between new taxes and savings.

When the budget talks, which are essential to the formation of a new government, made no progress on Monday, Di Rupo handed in his resignation to the country’s monarch, King Albert II.

Di Rupo handed in his resignation once before, in July, when talks over the electoral boundaries collapsed. At that stage the palace did not accept his resignation and talks resumed shortly after.

Belgium has come under market pressure over its lack of a new government and sovereign debt nearly as big as its GDP, with its cost of borrowing increasing steadily. Spreads between Belgian 10-year bonds and benchmark German Bunds rose sharply in November, going above 300 basis points, up from 103 basis points at the start of 2011.

Belgium’s interim government, headed by Yves Leterme, is preparing an emergency budget, based on the 2011 budget.
Austrian Banks to Limit Lending to East

The Financial Times reports Austrian Banks  Told to Limit Lending to East
Austrian bank supervisors have instructed the country’s banks to limit future lending in their east European subsidiaries, a further sign of the potential knock-on effects of the eurozone crisis for economies around the world.

The restrictions come as Austrian officials seek to defend the country’s AAA credit rating, amid concerns that the government might have to bail out its banks because of losses in central and eastern Europe, where they are the biggest lenders, and their exposure to Italy.

The moves by Austria, which appear to be unilateral, show how even the eurozone’s strongest economies are feeling the pressure of the sovereign debt crisis.

The Austrian central bank said in a statement that Erste Group, Raiffeisen Bank International and Bank Austria, owned by UniCredit of Italy, would be prevented from loaning significantly more in CEE countries than what they raise in local deposits. Subsidiaries that are “particularly exposed” must ensure the ratio of new loans to local refinancing is not more than 110 per cent.

The three banks’ CEE exposure exceeds Austrian GDP, raising concerns that the government would be unable to bail them out if their loan portfolios turned sour. The announcement came just as the spreads of Austrian bond yields over German Bunds rose to record highs and was also designed to calm market jitters, a central bank official said.
A quick check of Belgium 10-year government bonds shows the yield has risen to 4.87% vs. 1.91% for Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Official Denial in Greece Regarding "Indefinite Liquidity and Banking Stability"; Is a Worthless Guarantee Twice as Good When Doubled?

Things are really humming along in Greece, complete with an official denial of instability in the Greek banking system.

Please consider Government Doubles Bank Guarantees
State guarantees to Greek commercial banks are to double from 30 billion to 60 billion euros in order to secure liquidity in the market, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers in Athens on Monday.

Addressing Parliament’s Financial Affairs Committee, Venizelos said that ensuring the market’s cash flow continues will secure the liquidity of the banking system and safeguard bank deposits.

“The Greek banking system is guaranteed with indefinite liquidity and there is no issue with the stability of the system. This is the case for all eurozone countries,” Venizelos said.
"Official Denial" is Ominous


The concept of official denial comes from British television sitcom, Yes, Minister.

“The first rule of politics,” Sir Humphrey, the wily civil servant in the show, insists is: “never believe anything until it is officially denied.”

In case you missed it please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)

The statement by Venizelos "there is no issue with the stability of the system" is an ominous sign. So is the doubling of state "guarantees". The sane thing to do in Greece is immediately pull all your funds from Greek Banks.

For further discussion, please see History Suggests Greece Will Freeze Bank Deposits, Exit Euro by Christmas; Spain and Portugal to Follow Next Year; What's the Rational Thing to Do?

That is not a prediction, it is a statement saying "do not take any chances".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

U.S. Debt Panel Fails to Agree on Cuts

A special debt-reduction committee in the U.S. Congress failed to reach agreement, extending partisan gridlock into the 2012 election year and setting the stage for $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
President Barack Obama blamed Republicans, saying in remarks at the White House they “refused to listen to the voices of reason and compromise.” The president said he would veto any move to avoid the automatic spending cuts that are supposed to start in 2013 as a result of panel’s failure.
Committee co-chairmen Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, a Republican, and Senator Patty Murray of Washington, a Democrat, said in an e-mailed statement that “after months of hard work and intense deliberations, we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to make any bipartisan agreement available to the public before the committee’s deadline.”
Murray told reporters she would keep working toward a “fair and balanced” deal that could forestall the automatic cuts. “We have a responsibility to find that solution, and I’m going to keep working each and every day until we get there.”
Standard & Poor’s said it would keep the U.S. government’s credit rating at AA+ after the Hensarling and Murray announcement. S&P, which stripped the U.S. of its top AAA grade on Aug. 5, said it decided that the failure by the committee didn’t merit another downgrade. Moody’s Investors Service today affirmed its Aaa credit rating of the U.S. while maintaining a negative outlook.

Last-Ditch Attempts



Vets Join Tough Job Market


As the U.S. pulls troops out of Iraq, some companies say they are looking to add a few former soldiers to their ranks.

Dyron Snipe, with daughter Seidron, says his expectation of deployment could hinder his job prospects.

That may be easier said than done.

Following President Barack Obama's October troop withdrawal announcement, tens of thousands of service members are expected to leave Iraq by Dec. 31. Those who don't re-enlist, join the reserves or ride out a contract will re-enter civilian life and for most, that means getting a job.

But only about half of veterans felt they were prepared to assimilate into civilian life and look for work, according to an October survey by Monster Worldwide Inc. And nearly one in five recently returned veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan screen positive for post-traumatic stress disorder, according a 2008 study by RAND Corp., a nonprofit research institute.

Yet veterans and service members are known to have skills that managers consider essential to the workplace. Some of those skills include attention to detail, self-discipline, problem-solving, decision-making in stressful situations and ability to work in a team, say human-resources experts.

More than 60% of employers feel motivated to hire veterans based on their qualifications and prior work experience and a full 98% of employers that had hired a veteran would hire one again, according to an October Monster survey.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204517204577046320366010582.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights


MF Global Trustee Says Shortfall Could Exceed $1.2 Billion

The court-appointed trustee overseeing the liquidation of MF Global’s brokerage now estimates that the shortfall in the firm’s customer funds could be more than $1.2 billion, double previous estimates.
Regulators currently suspect that MF Global improperly used customer money for its own purposes in the days before filing for Chapter 11 protection, according to people briefed on the matter.
The decision to release the updated figure on Monday came after authorities concluded that much of the customer money had left the firm, these people said.