Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/30 – Up is Down and Everyone’s a TERRORIST!

Good Morning,

Equity futures are down sharply, erasing all of yesterday afternoon’s false straight up POMO induced short covering romp. Oil is down this morning after zooming on yesterday’s huge POMO infusion, yet gold continues to soar. The dollar continues to rocket as the euro gets slaughtered:

Bonds here are higher while spreads across Europe blow wider. Obviously this isn’t going to stop until all of Europe is bailed out… and how’s that going to happen? In the end countries are left with DEBT that cannot be repaid. Anyone who thinks that Ireland is EVER going to repay this “rescue” is simply insane – it can’t happen. Yet the central banks don’t care - they can create the money from nothing time and again – it’s not about money, it’s about CONTROL. But in their fervent and feverish desire to have control, the banks are losing control, the people of the world ARE going to toss them and their debt aside, there is no other outcome that’s mathematically possible.

I’m sure that just having that ‘T’ word on the headline will get me on 10 more watch lists… We have Congressmen branding WikiLeaks’ Assange a “terrorist” in addition to Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Administration brandishing HIM a criminal for exposing THEIR criminal acts (UN seeks answers from Washington). Next Assange says he has information regarding one of America’s big banks, and now we also have Actor Mark Ruffalo placed on terror watch list for supporting a documentary about gas drilling.

Current developments are disturbing to say the least - there is no doubt that the real terrorists reside at the central banks. Those terrorists and those who support them should think long and hard about their standing once the people rise up, and they will, it is only a matter of when.

Meanwhile the markets continue to be a complete and total joke – a fa├žade. Netflix at $200 a share! Give me a break. Yesterday we just pumped $9 billion more into the markets via two POMOs, and one has to wonder when it becomes 3, then 4, then you might as well just run a constant hose straight into the market. Yesterday the “Fed” cited weakness in just 3 companies as justification for pumping an additional $600 billion into the world! LOL, well, I’m a little short, perhaps the “Fed” should consider another $trillion or ten?
Need for QE2 Seen in Pausing Electronics Manufacturing Services

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- In the week before the Federal Reserve announced its $600 billion program to help spur the U.S. recovery, three makers of electronic equipment for companies such as Cisco Systems Inc. announced that demand for their products was weakening.

“Our customer forecasts are more uncertain,” Jure Sola, chief executive officer of San Jose, California-based Sanmina- SCI Corp., said on a Nov. 1 conference call. Some clients “have a lot of inventory in the pipeline” and “are worried about the economy.”

Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cited the deceleration in business spending on equipment and software when they announced Nov. 3 that the Fed would purchase Treasuries in a second round of quantitative easing to prevent inflation from falling further and help bring down unemployment, which has remained above 9 percent since May 2009.

Sweet, sweet POMO… While the central banks suckle the sugar, our real economy rots in the decay. The world became saturated with debt, they lowered interest rates to nothing (except for real people), then they pumped money from nothing, and now governments and people are even more saturated because it’s all the SAME PEOPLE who are responsible for all of it. More debt doesn’t make the problem go away – DUH. So what comes next? That would be the “other” events. You know, ignoring the Constitution, ignoring the rule of law, currency wars, trade wars, real shooting wars, labeling everyone a terrorist – that type of stuff. And there’s plenty more to come… plenty.

Yesterday Simon Black wrote a very provoking piece that was posted on ZeroHedge:
Simon Black Advocates Leaving America As The "Most Effective" Way To Fight The Battle With "The Mob-Installed Government Beast"

Simon Black, better known as Sovereign Man, presents some disturbing thoughts which are sure to get the broader spirits elevated. Instead of continuing to fight what some see as a losing ideological battle with a government which no longer even remotely represents the broader population's interests, Black says simply to walk away: "When you think about it, what we call a 'country' is nothing more than a large concentration of people who share common values. Over time, those values adjust and evolve. Today, cultures in many countries value things like fake security, subordination, and ignorance over freedom, independence, and awareness. When it appears more and more each day that those common values diverge from your own, all that's left of a country are irrelevant, invisible lines on a map. I don't find these worth fighting for ...The government beast in your home country feeds on debt and taxes, and the best way to win is for bright, productive people to move away with their ideas, labor, and assets. This effectively starves the beast and accelerates its collapse. Then, when the smoke clears, you can move back and help rebuild a free society."

This is the “Who Moved My Cheese” type of thinking – best to move on early, which is usually true. However, in this case one must ask if there is a freedom seeking place remaining on the planet? To me such a place needs to be safe and free from the reach of the central bankers! But I don’t see such a place, the central bankers have literally polluted the world with their corruptive filth. It’s so dirty that China and Russia will no longer trade with one another in it:

China and Russia quit dollar

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.

"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.

The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.

The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.

Meanwhile back at home, your home is simply worth less, despite the very real erosion of your money – do not confuse the dollar index with REAL purchasing power, they are NOT the same (see gold rising today alongside a rising dollar weighted against other worthless monies):
Home prices appear to be a growing risk to the economic recovery. Case-Shiller's adjusted index fell for the third month in a row and fell very steeply, down 0.7 percent in September for the composite 10 index. At only plus 1.5 percent, the adjusted on-year rate extended its run of weakness. Unadjusted data, showing a 0.5 percent month-to-month decline and a plus 1.6 percent on-year rate, show similar results. Weakness is no longer concentrated in the West or Florida with declines sweeping across regions.

Oh yeah, oil shooting higher, home prices sinking like a stone – that’ll turn out good for Americans.

And now we have Obama’s “Debt Commission” about to vote on the flavor of AUSTERITY Americans must face!
Obama's debt commission report: 4 flash points

NEW YORK ( -- Get ready for some heated rhetoric about how to contain the unsustainable national debt.

The spark will be lit by President Obama's bipartisan debt commission, which is set on Wednesday to vote on a final set of recommendations. That report will be an amended version of a plan put out three weeks ago by the panel's co-chairmen, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson.

What you hear this week is just the start of a long national conversation. Next year, Obama and Congress will attempt to turn talk into policies.

But for now, here's a look at just four flash points likely to dominate the reaction to the commission's report: Social Security, defense spending, the mortgage interest deduction and the spending vs. taxes debate. [follow link to see their four points]

Sorry, but it is mathematically impossible to austerity our way out of debt. If you take down the debt, you take down the economy! Let me say that again… take down the debt and you take down the economy!

That is because ALL of our money is debt. And that’s why neither debt based stimulus OR austerity will work! The only thing that will work is to produce debt free money and to restructure/ retire the debt that’s already in existence. The real answer cannot be found with the PRIVATE central banks in control of the production of money!

And that makes all the current worldwide “rescues” and austerity talk a realm for the mathematically “challenged” (insane). Current mainstream media is nothing but a central banker marketing arm – REAL PEOPLE must tune them out and focus on REALITY, as hard as that is.

The VIX is jumping again this morning, it is pressing the upper Bollinger bands upwards. I continue to believe that the world’s markets are living on borrowed time and borrowed money, yet we are still moving sidways in the same range. The central bankers are smokin’ some pretty good stuff if they believe this game is going to continue to much longer. Don’t toke on their stuff, man, or next thing you know they will be dragging your neighbor off while telling you they are “terrorists!”

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/29 – Morning After Pill…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are lower this morning, the morning after Ireland (or the cronies thereof) accepted an ill-gotten “rescue.” This “rescue” won’t benefit anyone but the central bankers, it’s nothing but a crime of the highest order - perpetrated not just on the people of Ireland, but also against the people of United States and much of Europe as well. The amount of interest they are paying is absurd, the actual interest rate is substantially higher than the touted 5.8% due to the finer terms of the agreement. Ridiculous, the Irish should have defaulted on the bonds that were the bankers problem in the first place, they should leave the European Union, and they should produce their own money without being indebted to the private bankers.

Meanwhile our bonds dropped like a stone, the dollar is higher with the euro substantially lower, oil and gold are slightly higher, while grain futures are soaring.

There are no economic reports today, just TWO POMOs to help cement the destruction of America. The Employment Situation Report this Friday will be the highlight of the week with quite a bit of data beginning tomorrow.

The markets for now have been moving in a sideway triangular formation which is easily seen on the 30 minute chart below:

SPX 1181 should provide support in the near term, but should that bottom boundary break, then as a triangle minimum the move should be worth about 18 points and will thus target about 1162, or as a pennant it would be worth about 50 points and therefore target roughly 1130ish. That would be interesting as 1129 is the top of wave 1 – probably not a coincident that it may target that area.

No violence yet on the Korean Peninsula as China offered to hold talks in December. That’s interesting, perhaps they are keeping their dog on a leash for now. Not sure if we’re bent on provoking a reaction or not, the events here are obviously important.

The Wikileaks document release is something. It is exposing the U.S. as the grand manipulators that we have unfortunately become. Of course the manipulators try to paint Assange as a rapist and as someone doing damage to real people… sorry, but he is simply shining light on cockroaches who are squirming because their actions cannot stand up in the light of day. Indeed it is weakening the U.S., not because of Wikileaks, but because we have an incompetent government who is doing evil work in support of the central banks. Of course our government tried to hack the Wikileaks site, then they release this nonsense pinning it on a “hacktivist for good,” LOL:
'Hacktivist for good' claims WikiLeaks takedown

(CNN) -- A computer hacker who calls himself "The Jester" claimed responsibility for the cyber attack which took down the WikiLeaks site Sunday, shortly before it started posting hundreds of thousands of classified U.S. diplomatic cables.

The Jester, who describes himself as a "hacktivist for good," said he took the controversial site down "for attempting to endanger the lives of our troops, 'other assets' & foreign relations."

He normally attacks Islamist websites, announcing "TANGO DOWN" on his Twitter account when claiming to have attacked a site. "Tango Down" is Special Forces jargon for having eliminated a terrorist.
Over the past few days, the Jester has targeted a handful of websites for reasons including "online incitement to cause young Muslims to carry out acts of violent jihad," "distributing jihadist instructional materials," and "for the online radicalization of young Muslims in US and Europe."

The Jester describes himself as "an ex-soldier with a rather famous unit, country purposely not specified."
"I was involved with supporting Special Forces, I have served in (and around) Afghanistan amongst other places," he told the website early this year.

The “Jester,” what a joke. This is obviously CIA and they are turning themselves into a joke along with the entire Administration. It’s quite sad to watch your country fall to this level. And as far as our Administration’s claims for potentially endangering people, why YES, it is our Administration who has placed many people in real danger with their actions and their brainwashing of the public.

Want to see another example of brainwashing? Here’s another CNN article from this morning telling us what energy hogs the Chinese are!

Why China is an energy consumption hog

NEW YORK ( -- Over the next 15 years China is expected to build the equivalent of New York City -- 10 times over.

That's a lot of concrete and steel, and it goes a long way to explaining why the country is using so much energy.

Roads, bridges, rail lines, skyscrapers and factories take tons of concrete, steel, chemicals and glass.

"They are building massive amounts of infrastructure," said Lynn Price, a scientist in the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy research lab. "It takes incredible amounts of these energy-intensive commodities."

Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency said China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest consumer of energy. The news was somewhat surprising.

While China does have four times as many people, its economy is only a third the size. So where is all that energy going?

Statistics from the DOE show it is China's industrial production, not its 1.3 billion people, that is using all this fuel. Sure, the Chinese are driving more cars and using more electricity but that's a drop in the bucket, relatively speaking.

China's industrial sector accounts for over 70% of its total energy consumption. Meanwhile, the U.S. industrial sector accounts for just 33% of its energy consumption.

Okay, so who’s the energy hog? China has more than 4 times the population and produces FAR more actual goods than the U.S., yet uses about the same amount of energy! What’s really going on is that the U.S.’s GDP is the result of FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, it is FALSE. Yet we drive around in giant sized S.U.V.’s and F-350s producing little that’s real.

And while that is certainly not the most important news story of the weekend, it is important because it demonstrates the propaganda being disseminated here in the United States. We have become far better at warping people’s minds and perspectives than the Russians and Pravda ever were. Again, this deception originates at the central banks. They own and control the production of money, our politics, our markets, the military industrial complex, the media, everything – and it’s all false, based entirely on FRAUD. It started with the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank who is NOT “Federal,” they hold NO RESERVES, and they are not really even a BANK.

I know that’s a very negative world view, but one that I sadly believe to be reality. If we truly love the ideas and principles that our country is based upon, then we need to acknowledge those realities and set about fixing them. Investing in the “markets?” They are way too far gone for long term “investing,” they won’t be safe again until WHO controls them is changed. Get out the popcorn, it’s going to be quite a show from here on out.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/26 – More Contagion…

Good Morning,

I hope everyone had a terrific Thanksgiving. Equity futures are down again this morning for our post holiday shortened trading session. The dollar is significantly higher, the euro lower, bonds are higher, while oil and gold are lower.

The Chinese hiked margin requirements on almost all commodity trading, this is pressuring the commodities as China attempts to cool the hot money inflation. Notice how our governments first work hard to stimulate, and then when that blows up in their face, as it always does, then they resort to having to micromanage every aspect of the markets… and then that will fail as it always does. Governments cannot manage markets – doing so eventually wrecks both the government and the markets.

There is no economic data today. Next week will be a busy data week that culminates in the November Employment Report on Friday.

The real news continues to revolve around debt saturation. European spreads are continuing to blow wide in one country after another. The “rescue” of Ireland has failed to lower rates on Irish debt and the average rate across the PIIGS is now at new all-time Euro zone highs:
Irish Relief Fleeting as ‘Day of Reckoning’ Nears: Euro Credit

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing costs for Europe’s most indebted nations are at record highs as Ireland’s capitulation in accepting a bailout of its banking industry stokes concern that other countries also will have to seek aid.

The average yield investors demand to hold 10-year debt from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy reached 7.56 percent today, a euro-era record. The average premium investors demand to hold those securities instead of German bunds widened to 488 basis points, the highest level of 2010. The average cost of insuring against default by the five nations using credit- default swaps reached a record 517 basis points on Nov. 23.

“It’s no longer taboo to speak about a restructuring,” said Johannes Jooste, a portfolio strategist at Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management in London, which oversees about $1.4 trillion for clients. “The fact that bond yields continue to rise and put pressure on countries that have to fund from the market makes investors less and less confident, and it’s bringing forward the day of reckoning.”

The Nov. 22 relief rally after Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen conceded that the nation needed financial support proved transient. Irish 10-year bond yields fell 4 basis points, before jumping 100 basis points as of 11 a.m. today, exceeding 9 percent for the first time since 1995. The euro’s respite was more fleeting; the bailout inspired a 0.8 percent gain for the currency before it slumped to a two-month low. It fell 0.9 percent to $1.3238 today.

Volatile Market
“When Ireland accepted help, the general feeling in the market was that this could restore some calm; that hasn’t been the case,” said Michiel de Bruin, who oversees about $35 billion as head of European government debt at F&C Netherlands in Amsterdam. “Authorities should be doing their utmost to calm the situation.”

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a Nov. 11 report that any move by Ireland to use the European Financial Stability Facility would boost the euro and be a “circuit breaker” for the European sovereign debt crisis. While Ireland has enough money to pay its debts until the middle of next year, it has requested a bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund amid concern the cost of rescuing its banks would overwhelm government finances.

Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said in an interview published today that EU governments can’t impose a bailout on his country.

A majority of euro region officials and the European Central Bank are putting pressure on Portugal to accept aid that helps stop contagion spreading to Spain, the Financial Times Deutschland reported today. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said the nation isn’t pushing Portugal to seek aid. An official at the office of Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates also denied the report.

The “bailouts” haven’t restored calm because they make the situation worse. Only a fool believes that you can cure a debt problem with more debt. But trust me, the central bankers are no fools, they are rolling in the lap of luxury while they PURPOSELY create stress across the region in order to force these “bailouts” that are really all about establishing power and control. They do so by creating money from absolutely NOTHING and then indebting entire nations. It’s preposterous and I’m amazed that the people aren’t waking up to take action.

Oh wait, in Ireland they are:


I hope you took the time to watch that video, it is extremely important. Jim Corr is a man who understands what’s happening, the first citizen I’ve seen who eloquently, directly, and correctly identifies the ROOT of the problem and is organizing to defend themselves against attack. You are going to see more of this type of pushback, it is critical that the people of the world step up and do this. It will be coming to America, I only hope we will be as brave and as well spoken as Mr. Corr.

Attack is the correct word, the central banks are the ones pushing up the debt and the cost of that debt in order to push these bailouts. Politicians who don’t realize this are being duped. This is going to ripple from one country to the next, and sorry Mr. Zapatero, Spain is squarely in the crosshairs:
Spain Bets on Budget, Home Investors to Stem Contagion

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Spain is counting on budget cuts and domestic appetite for its bonds to build a firewall against contagion as Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero warned investors would lose money betting against the nation’s debt.

Spain, which has the euro region’s third-highest budget deficit, says it won’t adopt new measures to protect itself from Europe’s worsening debt crisis after cutting the central government’s budget gap by almost 50 percent and taming regional spending. Providing support is about half of Spanish debt is held at home, more than in Ireland or Portugal, offering a line of defense against changes in foreign investors’ moods.

“I should warn those investors who are short-selling Spain that they are going to be wrong and will go against their own interests,” Zapatero said in an interview with Barcelona-based broadcaster RAC1 today. He “absolutely” ruled out Spain would need a rescue.

You are being duped, Mr. Zapatero, your talk will only embolden the shorts (who are the same central banks who lent you the money in the first place, creating a completely unmanageable credit bubble in your country).

Those same banks in Spain are getting ready to dump massive amounts of foreclosure real estate into the market, this will spur the next major leg down in real estate prices, and that in turn will cause government revenue to plunge, making current debt all the more unserviceable.

And thus the ripple continues across Europe. There is simply no way that the math works in Europe and thus the Euro experiment is destined to fail, it already has.

And as smart as the central bankers are, their efforts to control the globe will ultimately fail. This is because there are NATURAL laws that prevent such an effort from being successful. You cannot repress intelligent people forever, they absolutely will rebel.

And thus we are going to witness HISTORIC events unfold at an ever quickening pace as the math of their debt is exponential and that exponential growth compresses those events in time. North Korea is threatening war again due to our military exercises planned for this weekend. These types of tensions and releases of anger are part-and-parcel the expression of underlying stress created by DEBT. It simply doesn’t have to be that way, and the people are going to change it – get ready as more historic events are coming.

Before I close today’s message, I want to talk about people’s misperceptions of this site. What it is not is a day trading site. It is my belief that those who day trade in this market will eventually get eaten alive by the central banker’s HFT machines, quote stuffing, and various inside games they play in order to ROB you of your money. My advice has been and remains DON’T DO IT.

I consider the writing on this site to be public service. Goal number one is to educate others so that we are aware of what’s happening and can thus work to fix the REAL PROBLEMS without being duped by the Central Bankers. I talk about the markets and do TA work, to highlight those problems and so that people can decide for themselves just how real the markets are or are not. Right now it is my considered opinion that the markets are NOT REAL, and thus I do not consider placing money for any time frame into those “markets” as an investment.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, there are three market aspects to consider before “investing:” 1. Fundamentals 2. Technicals 3. Psychological.

It is my ongoing opinion that fundamentally our economy is saturated with unserviceable debt. I therefore do not believe that investments are safe until RESTRUCTURING occurs that significantly lowers the amount of debt in the system. Therefore, betting long the markets is betting long that the bankers can push still more debt onto the backs of the people. Maybe they can for a while, but it will be short lived, and counter trend, again in my opinion. I personally do not bet counter the fundamentals or counter trend as I consider it foolish. I know there are people who think they are clever and can win by playing in these markets, and I think they are gambling and will be taught a lesson in the end. So, if you are here to pick up tips and tap my market knowledge, that is great, there will come a time again when that knowledge can be put to use in REAL markets again… but that time, unfortunately, is not now.

Again, that’s my opinion, and note that I charge NOTHING to share that advice. If you wish to give your money away, then by all means sign up for people’s trading services – there you will find that there is NO ONE who will consistently return you money by trading over and over again in short time frames. Buyers beware.

And thus, if you want to be a successful INVESTOR, then you need to have realistic goals and a realistic understanding of the markets and of the people who provide services about the markets. NO ONE consistently gets every turn in the markets right – NO ONE. There are those who have made good calls in advance, and for the rest of their careers they will shout about those good calls while ignoring the bad ones. That’s the name of the game in investor services – buyer beware.

Don't forget that Monday's (ramp job) is coming 'round again...

Thanksgiving Day Open Thread...

Any Questions about Where the Euro is Headed?

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/24 – Opt Out Day…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are higher this morning following another 90% down day yesterday that obviously fulfilled the large price movement called for by the small movement in the McClelland Oscillator which now stands at -145.85. The dollar is down only a very slight amount this morning after breaking up and out of its downtrend channel. Bonds are sharply lower, oil, and gold are higher.

The conflicted, still worthless, and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported a rise in Mortgage Applications last week of 14.4%, as if that type of move in a week is possible – I highly doubt it, but for them this is a mild move as they attempt to paint reality as something it is not. The Refinancing part of their report fell by 1.0% which pushed the composite index to up 2.2%. I don’t know why I even bother with this report other than to keep an eye on what the criminals are disseminating – here’s Econoday:
In surprisingly good news for the housing sector, applications for home purchases surged 14.4 percent in the November 19 week. The report says the increase, which lifts purchase applications to their highest post-stimulus level, suggests consumers are feeling more confident with their own finances. Yet calendar effects surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday may be it magnifying the gain, one that will have to be confirmed in subsequent weeks. The refinance index isn't showing any lift, down 1.0 percent to hit its lowest level since June. Rates were mixed in the week with 30-year mortgages rising four basis points to 4.50 percent. Next data on the housing sector will be new home sales for October to be posted at 10:00 ET today.

“Calendar effects surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday?” What? Econoday is losing it as they are talking about last week, it is this current week that will have Thanksgiving week adjustments.

Durable Goods Orders fell sharply in October from last month’s report on September. If you remember, that was spiked higher by a surge in aircraft orders. Well, not this month. The prior report was +3.3%, this report was looking for -.1%, but the actual came in at -3.3%:
While the consumer sector looks good today from personal income and jobless claims, manufacturing has taken a step back. Durables orders in October fell 3.3, following a 5.0 spike the month before. The October figure came in notably below the median market forecast for a 0.1 percent decline. Weakness was broad based but led by transportation. Excluding transportation, durables declined 2.7 percent after rising 1.3 percent in September.

By major industries, transportation fell 5.2 percent in October after surging 16.5 percent the month before. The drop was mainly in defense aircraft but nondefense aircraft and also motor vehicles orders eased. Other industries generally declined but mostly after a moderate gain in September.

Orders for equipment investment are showing notable volatility. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in October declined 4.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent the previous month. Shipments for this series slipped 1.5 percent, following a 1.0 percent gain in September.

Today's durables report is a disappointment but should be viewed in the context of being one of the most volatile monthly series for a major indicator produced by the government. Also, a weaker dollar points to likely improvement ahead for durables orders and manufacturing.

What a joke! “One of the most volatile monthly series…” Didn’t used to be. Nice to see them admit that this data (and all data based upon measuring in dollars) is influenced by the direction of the dollar. When the dollar falls, it has the ILLUSION of increasing everything – growth in sales, growth in imports and exports, growth in GDP… but when that is from a falling dollar, it is not real. Well, guess what, the dollar is way UP for the month of November, not down, so these figures may not be coming in as good as thought over the next few months. Fourth Quarter GDP, how’s that going to look with a rising dollar? What would Q3 have been had the dollar not been plunging during that timeframe? Guess what, it can’t fall forever.

Meanwhile Personal Income and Expenditures are also bending reality. A 4.1% year over year increase in income? I highly doubt it:
The consumer is making a moderately strong comeback in October in both income and spending. Meanwhile, core inflation is subdued and still too low for Fed comfort. Personal income in October posted a healthy 0.5 percent gain, following no change in September. Income growth topped analysts' forecast for 0.4 percent increase. Importantly, the wages & salaries component jumped 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent improvement the month before.

Household spending also showed strength. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase in September. For the latest month, strength was led by a 1.9 percent monthly spike in durables. Nondurables advanced 0.8 percent while services edged up 0.1 percent.

Year on year, personal income for October came in at up 4.1 percent, compared to 3.7 percent in September. PCEs growth slipped to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent in September.
PCE inflation nudged up at the headline level but the core remained anemic. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.1 percent uptick in September. The core rate was flat for the second month in row. On a year-ago basis, the headline number in October was 1.3 percent, down from 1.4 percent in September. Meanwhile the core was 0.9 percent, down from 1.2 percent the prior month.

Relative to typical recoveries, the rebound in income in income and spending is still sub-par but at least we are seeing some strengthening. Retailers and policy makers should be happy that the trend is up.

Again, all these figures are measured in dollars which were falling in value ahead of and during this timeframe. Furthermore I simply do not believe the supposed increases in income and there is likely tampering with that data by using a working population size that is shrinking – the same distortion used by the BLS to artificially lower the unemployment rate. Despite a growing population, they claim the size of the workforce is shrinking considerably.

And speaking of fudging the numbers – something that I am sick of having to report – the Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 407,000, a drop of 32,000 from last week’s reported 439k (revised higher of course). The problem with this drop? IT DIDN’T HAPPEN! When we look at the unadjusted numbers, they ROSE by 52,490! In the DOL’s own words, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 462,027 in the week ending Nov. 20, an increase of 52,490 from the previous week.”

And here’s more on the unadjusted data, “The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent during the week ending Nov. 13, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,839,033, an increase of 103,105 from the preceding week.” My, that’s a lot of increases for a week that reported a large decrease.

And there you have it. I can see the news headlines already, “BIG DROP in unemployment claims shows you should go out and spend, spend, spend like a drunken sailor in front of Christmas because never ending growth is what Christmas is all about!”

Last week’s data was similarly fudged with the unadjusted figures way higher while the adjusted and reported number was way lower. It’s all false, don’t shoot the messenger – here’s Econoday whose economic interests' obviously are tied to the economy remaining artificially propped up:
Seasonal factors tied to Thanksgiving may be at play yet the trend for jobless claims is clearly positive. Initial claims fell 34,000 in the November 20 week to a far lower-than-expected level of 407,000 (prior week revised slightly higher to 441,000). The four-week average is down 7,500 to 436,000 for a nearly 20,000 improvement in the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims fell for the third week in a row and at 142,000 posted their biggest decline since July. The four-week average fell 51,000 to 4.309 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers fell one tenth to 3.3 percent for its lowest rate of the recovery.

Claims readings, due to the problem of making weekly adjustments in shortened weeks, start to get cloudy during the holidays. This puts the focus on the four-week averages which are offering a strong signal for rising payroll gains.

LOL, riiiiggght… As artificial as a made in China Wal-Mart Christmas tree. There are those holiday factors again. Once again this was during a week that contained no holiday, it was full length, although we must fluff up the reports in front of Black Friday. What a sad joke on the American public. Again, I will remind everyone that readings above 350k are job losing weeks – we have been losing jobs despite a growing population for a very extended time – sad, but manipulation of the data like this is not sad, it is sick.

Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning.

North Korea says they are on the brink of war. Does the market have a global conflict priced in? Oh, that’s right, war is a profit center for the oligarchs who manufacture our money and own the military industrial complex. Must keep growth going at any cost?

Yesterday’s equity and currency moves were quite bearish. Again the big news was what occurred with the dollar and with the Euro. The Euro is toast and the dollar is toast, it truly is a race to the bottom, the only question is who reaches the bottom first. Right now I would say that the Eurozone falls apart before we do – that is well in motion already.

The financials have been hit very hard. Below is a chart of BANK, yesterday in the daily thread I pointed out that it created an inverted hammer, today price is higher confirming that some type of trend change has occurred – I’m thinking minor, but we’ll see:

The “other” events worry me far more than market events. That’s because history shows repeatedly that those other events follow economic upheaval. Right now we’re seeing lies and manipulation. We’re seeing a public that is being conditioned and repressed. I don’t like being lied to and I don’t like the general sense I’m getting…

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/23 – “Other” Events…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are down significantly overnight following North Korea’s attack on the South and the ensuing return fire. Bonds are higher, oil is significantly lower, and gold is also down. The dollar has broken upwards out of its down channel and the Euro has broken down from its channel in what appears to be the beginning of a wave 3 movement. A daily chart of the dollar is left, euro is right:

Yesterday there was a small movement on the McClelland Oscillator, thus we can expect today’s movement to be large.

The attack from North Korea killed two South Korean soldiers and wounded more. It was an attack on a civilian populated island. I won’t try to report the details, but what concerns me most here is that North Korea is really a puppet of China – therefore China’s reaction to this will be key to watch. In some respects I read this as China letting their dog bite one of our dogs. Was it a signal to knock it off in regards to what we’re doing in the currency wars?

I don’t know and I sincerely hope that this does not escalate, however, we have a completely empty suit for a President. He is weak, he has proven to the world already that he will let just about anyone with more than a nickel in their possession run him over. He let our own generals run him over in regards to doing the opposite of what he said he was going to do, which is to bring our troops home from overseas - and the most dangerous thing is when politicians run out of their own tools and turn things over to their generals. The right combination is a leader who is tough – one that you KNOW is going to take you out should you prod him, but who is cool enough to know how to step in and prevent situations from escalating. Our current administration worries me in this regard – I view him as a banker puppet, they are in charge of what transpires and that’s the most scary part of all because they are narcissists and do not care about escalation as it is a profit center to them.

Economic events, as I’ve repeatedly said, turn into “other” events where the money problems are not generally recognized as the cause, yet real shooting wars consistently follow economic turmoil. Shame on us for not taking action sooner against the central banks – if we want to prevent wars, we need to put the people back in charge of the production of their own money the world over. Here we have an insolvent banking system the world over, we have a bankrupt United States, a bankrupt European Union, and an economically sunk Japan. We have weakened ourselves in the name of “security.” We have sacrificed our freedom, and we have done this to ourselves.

Hell, we can’t even be honest with ourselves! Quarter 3 GDP was revised UPWARDS (LOL X 14 trillion) from 2.0% growth to 2.5% growth on an annualized basis. What a sham, GDP is probably 40% overstated or more, most of it the result of financial engineering. But let’s not talk about it, let’s just kick the can down the road some more and let those “other” events fester. Here’s Econoday’s unconscious reporting:
The recovery is not quite as sluggish as previously believed. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.5 percent annualized growth from the advance estimate of 2.0 percent. The revision came in higher than analysts' expectation for 2.4 percent. The upward revision was primarily due higher estimates for personal consumption, producers' durable equipment & software, exports, and federal government spending. Partial offsets were seen in a lower estimate for residential investment, nonresidential structures, inventories, and a higher figure for imports.

Importantly, demand numbers were revised up. Final sales of domestic product were boosted to 1.2 percent from the initial estimate of 0.6 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were bumped up to 2.9 percent from the original figure of 2.5 percent for the third quarter. Importantly, PCEs growth is a stronger 2.8 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 2.6 percent.

Year-on-year, real GDP in the second quarter is up 3.2 percent, compared 3.0 percent in the second quarter.

On the inflation front, the GDP price index was unchanged from the initial estimate of 2.3 percent. The consensus forecast was for 2.3 percent.

The bottom line is that the recovery has regained some momentum with the consumer sector taking on a little more of the growth burden. Final sales to domestic purchasers are moderately strong and overall sales of domestic product should pick up if the weaker dollar boosts exports-a decent probability. But growth is still sluggish relative to what is needed for improvement in the labor market.

On the news, equities were little changed. Futures remained notably negative due to saber rattling on the Korean peninsula.

The only thing that grew in the 3rd quarter was the amount of money pumped into the system, that is it, the rest is pure bullshit.

Corporate Profits for Q3 came in showing a growth of 28.2% on a year over year basis, this is down significantly from Q2’s 38.7% yoy growth. While up significantly yoy, the pace of growth fell by nearly a third – and keep in mind that a year prior to Q2 of 2010, earnings were close to zero! Thus they could rise very little and the percentage rise looks impressive. Are these corporate earnings real? HELL NO! They are completely FALSE! A large percentage of these profits come from the financial sector who is marking their assets to their own models. This is accounting FRAUD, that is stacked upon various other frauds. And it’s not just in the financials, the FRAUD is rampant, the “profits” are false. Simply return to mark to market accounting and those “profits” would vanish. They are going to regardless, even if it takes a major war to do it.

Existing Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern.

The markets are still within the range of a wave 4. As long as prices stay above the SPX 1129 level, then the odds favor that there will be a 5th wave higher. McHugh’s read is that there would be one more leg lower to finish wave 4. But the notion of a 5th wave higher is hard to imagine with all the events in Europe and now in the Koreas. Should 1129 break, then we will know that a larger correction is in play – there’s still a lot of support between here and there, but we know that the entire run up in stocks has been false – easy come, easy go.

And so, that dollar move is very significant. Within that down channel there is only 3 waves – that means that it was the down move that was corrective and that the primary direction of the dollar in the intermediate timeframe is HIGHER (the dollar is already dead mathematically, that is the long term). That is the OPPOSITE of what the masses believe in the short run, and that makes this channel break significant.

The mass media is reporting that the “Economy is Picking up Steam” due to the false GDP report. The only thing that’s picking up steam are the tremendous piles of manure created by the printing press – now a computer. The people know this. They know that printing money will not get them jobs. China is fully aware that with each POMO infusion the value of their U.S. debt is diminished – they are being robbed by the gangsters who run America. Those gangsters are indiscriminate, they will rob everyone, they do not care as long as their fortunes or their safety are not threatened.

Tomorrow is “Opt Out” day for the TSA – I support that movement wholeheartedly.

Freedom and Security… They are directly connected, and yet the relationship between the two is widely misunderstood. You CANNOT have FREEDOM while pursuing security. You WILL GAIN TRUE SECURITY when you pursue FREEDOM.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/22 – Contagion…

Good Morning,

Do we have a FAILURE to stem the contagion? That is the question this morning following Irelands’ “bailout.” Spreads on Irish bonds are UP this morning, not down. Spreads on Portuguese debt is blowing wide this morning, rising more than 40 basis points as the next victim of “rescue” is attacked. You know that Spain and Italy are right behind.

Below is this morning's reaction in the dollar (left), and euro (right). Not the results they want from a huge bailout:

At what point does the union simply collapse? How many billions in rescue funds can be generated before they finally admit that the entire region is broke and that the Euro has failed? IT HAS FAILED. The terms of the Union have already been broken, and I fail to see how it can survive in its present state as the crush of debt to come gets bigger and bigger very fast. Spain and Italy are many times larger than Greece and Ireland, the end of pretend is near.

And this so called Irish bailout is not even close to being a done deal itself – only broad strokes and agreement to leave their corporate tax rate alone, but no details regarding amounts or timing have been reached other than the government will have to inject an immediate $6 billion into their banks! Why immediate if their banks are all okay? Oh yeah, and Ireland “asked” for it… I must have read that a hundred times, what bull. Part of this deal is that supposedly the Irish banks will be restructured to be made smaller, with some parts sold off overseas… what they didn’t say is if the “bad bank” idea being floated over the weekend is a part of that restructuring. If so, that is nothing but the shell game whereby they dump bad investments into a shell corporation to be bankrupted later leaving that group of investors high and dry. They should be high and dry, but so too should the banks, their good assets should be sold to make good on their bad – that’s the rule of law, the shell game is ILLEGAL yet governments are doing it anyway (including ours).

And there is more and more resistance to this from factions within Ireland (appropriately so). And not just within Ireland, there are people inside of Germany threatening to sue over what has become the “Bailout Union (BU).” All of these bailouts are outside of the EU charter and are not supposed to be happening. In effect all of Europe is being placed on the hook to bailout European banks (boy, do we know what that feels like). But in Europe the countries are supposed to be sovereign, and being in perpetual and insurmountable debt is certainly not living free, it is living as a slave to the banks who are their masters.

But the people of the world continue to let the bankers control them. It starts out so subtly that we don’t even realize its happening. For example, just last week I received a statement in the mail from USAA who insures my property… in it was a notice that USAA is using personal credit information to set insurance rates! They show a full page table describing why certain negative credit events correlate to higher insurance risks, and thus higher premiums.

Now think about this for awhile… it may seem somewhat appropriate on the surface, especially to good actors like me who have low rates, but I have two big issues with this: One is that it works against the poor to keep them poor; and two, which is far more important, is that it conditions the population to CONFORM to the BANK’S RULES. This credit reporting system now affects every aspect of our lives, where we live, where we can work, and how much we pay for other things besides just DEBT. CONFORM OR ELSE. But in this case CONFORMING means you better not cross your corporate BOSS, and you better not disagree with anyone who can affect your credit rating or you will pay and pay and pay. Thus you have very LIMITED RECOURSE, but the corporations have nearly instant and unlimited recourse. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.

Because resistance is futile, I would argue that resistance is MANDATORY.

Here’s Pat Rabbitte demonstrating the first steps of what I mean… where are the politicians in this country who have spines?

Sorry to break the news to you, but the people of the world are at WAR. The war is the people versus the central banks. Unfortunately we don’t yet collectively recognize the real enemy, but that recognition is developing. Also unfortunate is that the banks feed the corporations and in turn the politicians - as a result you get self-explanatory charts like this one that Jesse provided this weekend:

Markets? What a joke. With politicians on that side of the equation, is there any wonder that there are no adults to police the markets? Insider trading, dark pools, HFT machines, bailouts, POMOS, oh my. None of it is real, none of it serves the purpose for which they were created. FRAUD is rampant, it is no place for your money, not until the rule of law is enforced and is restored. That likely won’t happen until we change WHO controls the production of our money. Under the current system the private central banks produce and control all the money and they ARE THE “FED” – the same banks own and control the media and the military industrial complex. They own the exchanges, and thus they can see your bids and your stops before they are even executed. They have built high speed networks to arbitrage in milliseconds any move you make. They are the markets and they are profiting simply by stealing from you, and through the use of accounting and control FRAUD.

Here’s the ironic part… despite creating money (as debt) and owning all of the above, they are INSOLVENT. And that simply goes to show you how crooked the mobsters are – and that anyone in America should respect or bow to a puppet like the “Fed” is beyond me. Don’t fight the “Fed” - my ass. That very statement gives them power that does not belong to them.

As far as economic reports this holiday shortened week, the main event is tomorrow with the 2nd report of 3rd quarter GDP. The first whack claimed (falsely) that the economy is growing at a 2% pace, and now the consensus is looking for that to be revised higher to 2.4%! Existing Home Sales is also reported tomorrow.

Today the Chicago “Fed” released its National Activity Index. In negative territory for the 5th month in a row and the three month moving average getting more negative, here’s Econoday:
In October, the Chicago Fed national activity index improved to a reading of minus 0.28 from minus 0.52 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made small positive contributions, while the consumption and housing category continued to make a large negative contribution.

The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to minus 0.46 in October from minus 0.33 in September, reaching its lowest level since November 2009. October's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend for the fifth consecutive month. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. Production-related indicators made a contribution of plus 0.08 to the index in October, up from minus 0.12 in September. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.5 percent in October, up from a 0.1 percent gain in the previous month; and manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 72.7 percent in October from 72.3 percent in September

Just remember that anything released from the “Fed” is suspect at best, so negatively reporting on themselves should be viewed that reality is much worse. NEVER give someone the power to report on their own performance – yet another doorway to fraud that was opened by the Federal Reserve Act.

So what does the stock market do from here? I don’t know for certain as we are in a transition point. If the contagion continues, then the markets are toast here and now. Many people this weekend were expecting a bounce, and many, many people are looking for a larger 5th wave higher. Will it develop? It doesn’t have to! But it could.

And thus we are still in the same area, still failing to break above the 61.8% retrace mark and still failing to break over 1200 on the S&P. We’ll track support and resistance levels and look for a trend to develop. The EW experts believe we’re in a wave 4, it certainly is acting like it, but again, it could be that hindsight will prove that count incorrect, that’s why we’re watching key levels like 1129 which is still a ways down there.

Eric Clapton - Stormy Monday:

Martin Armstrong – The Rising Frustration with the Debt Crisis…

Martin Armstrong – Show Me the Money…

Martin has published several papers recently that are pretty coherent and I think offer some very good points and thinking about the way our economy and money system work, and don’t work. Again, his strong point is his read on history and his ability to put it into an economic context.

In this piece he correctly states that a gold standard is bunk and he offers some good insights on the movement of currencies and what to expect (generally the opposite of what the majority thinks will happen). If you look at his model, it does have a major turn date that occurs before the mid-point of next year – the last turn did occur close to the March ’09 low point in stocks, but it could also mark a major turning point in the dollar.

At any rate, this is an interesting read, it will make you more aware by reading it, but I would caution anyone about taking his predictions too seriously. Remember, predicting the future is pretty much a fool’s errand unless there is mathematical certainty involved – and in this case there most certainly is, the debt is completely mathematically impossible to ever repay and thus you know that events are coming. When predicting market events, the easiest thing to predict (which is not easy) is direction, the next hardest to predict is the depth, and the hardest to predict is timing. Thus you should always take people’s read of the future with a many grains of salt.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/19

Good Morning,

Equity futures are down slightly, the dollar is up slightly, bonds are up a little, while both oil and gold are down more significantly.

Well it’s Options Expiration, and so there’s yet another reason to monkey with the markets – what will it be today? Do we have any good reason to manipulate data or to have the President get on T.V. and state how happy he is that we can produce funny money and POMO our way into creating a FRAUDULENT IPO for GM? Best of luck to all the suckers who bought it, and note that when the public could finally have access to it, it opened at $36 and promptly melted down to just above $33, losing nearly 10% right off the bat. As Forrest would say, “Stupid is as stupid does.”

And what a loser of a President and Administration...

As James Carville said yesterday, "If Hillary gave up one of her balls and gave it to Obama, he’d have two."

I think that’s being too generous, I don’t see that he has one to begin with. What I do see are tracks running up his back from being run over by the banking interests, that’s about it.

What a great market run up yesterday on nothing volume. And get this, of that pathetic volume, GM accounted for nearly a quarter of the volume traded on the Big Board. Sweet, sweet POMO. Could it have gone off like that without all the easy money? No way. And now not only am I seeing that the market is completely rigged, but I’m also coming to the conclusion that the economic data reported to us has been completely hijacked to be used for manipulation purposes as well. The Philadelphia Fed data yesterday was simply disconnected from reality as it made one of the largest advances in history. This comes despite data from other regions to the contrary, and it leaves me noting how the data floated better prior to the elections, fell afterwards, and then on the day they must show the world how successfully they can create money while robbing others of money via the GM IPO, the data magically is wonderful (margin compression aside). But hey, Obama had something “wonderful” to read from his teleprompter.

Boy, we can all be proud of that.

And the thing is that despite the media hype over the IPO, the people aren’t buying it! Even those who don’t understand the mechanics of it understand that it’s just simply false. And thus everyday that passes with more and more FRAUD coming to light, confidence crumbles because there are still no adults to be found, and because, well, Obama has yet to grow a pair.

And the bankers are doing a full-court-press on Ireland to accept a bailout. The people of Ireland are just flat out pissed, as they should be. The leadership is trying to negotiate terms in trying to keep their corporate tax rate low, but ultimately any “bailout” would simply put the people on the hook for money to bail the banks out of their problems. Of course after Ireland comes Portugal, then Spain, then Italy, then all the rest of Europe. It really is the theatre of the absurd as all the developed world is bankrupt as are all the large banks – and thus it is the bankrupt offering to bailout the bankrupt, but again it all comes down to power, control, and the using of other people’s productive efforts on behalf of the few.

And speaking of the few, yesterday Goldman announced they are promoting a record number of people to “Managing Directors.” Yet another in-your-face to people who expend their life’s energy on something REAL, they wind up supporting these debt pushing criminals who create nothing but havoc around the globe. Congrats on the promotion, I want all those who are being promoted to know that I hold them directly responsible for supporting the continued destruction of America.

The municipal bond funds took another hit yesterday, and the media is not talking about it yet. This is very significant in that it means small government is going to have more trouble raising funds going forward, not to mention the direct havoc it will raise within people’s investment accounts if it continues.

On the 30 minute chart of the SPX below you can see that the run up yesterday took prices up to a perfect 50% retracement level which is also coincident with overhead resistance at 1200:

So far that move looks corrective and it might be the b wave of an a,b,c correction. It could be over, and if so we should see more selling soon. However there are several possible counts here and I am cautious as after today we are heading into a holiday week next week, and then the traditionally low volume period from there thru the end of the year. Low volume plus tons of POMO money will likely bring us what, higher gas prices for the New Year? That, or it may be used to bet against the next bank victim in line, Portugal, whose bonds are surely next to get the “take the rescue or else” shake it up treatment.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/18

Good Morning,

Equity futures are higher this morning going along for a media circus GM IPO/ POMO frenzy. Bonds are lower, the dollar is lower, while oil and gold are both higher.

The GM IPO, as if you can refer to it as “initial,” is nothing but more criminal behavior. The offering wasn’t even made available to the public, the same public who spent billions inappropriately bailing out the wrecked FINANCIAL institution that GM became. Automobiles? Forget it! And even the poor workers didn’t understand that it was GMAC that sunk GM while their bosses and the media attacked the unions. And nothing has changed – they are back into the same risk filled financial gambling that they were in before. It’s not about the cars people, it’s only about the money. And GM through GMAC was PRINTING MONEY! They PRINTED far more money (from nothing) than they made cars! Still do!

That’s right, GMAC was making all kinds of loans from subprime homes to automobiles and they were making money from thin air every time they originated a loan. Of course they buried GMAC, but then THIS JULY GM bought subprime lender AmeriCredit in order to crank up their printing presses yet again. Oh, and that was financed on YOUR nickel. LOL, and people are talking about cars and unions as if they are important to this company – not even.

And where did the money for the IPO come from? Gee, the “Fed” is pouring $8 billion a day into the market… thus the “largest offering in history” only absorbed 2.5 days of POMO!

And cars are most certainly a bubble themselves. Run up to completely unbelievable prices on the back of longer financing terms and artificially low interest rates. This too shall pass as wage arbitraged Americans who earn $10 an hour are not going to be able to afford $30,000 autos forever.

Weekly Jobless Claims were reported for the prior week at 439,000, that is up from the prior week’s 435k which was revised up to 437k. Here’s Econoday, and then we can discuss reality:
Jobless claims held onto the big improvement of the prior week, rising only 2,000 to a lower-than-expected level of 439,000 in the November 13 week (prior week revised 2,000 higher to 437,000). The four-week average, at 443,000 and down more than 15,000 from a month ago, is signaling solid improvement for November payrolls.

Continuing claims have also been coming down, falling 48,000 in the November 6 week to 4.295 million. The four-week average of 4.353 million is down 133,000 from its month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers fell one tenth to 3.4 percent.

Special factors aren't a factor in the improvement underway though the November 13 week does include Veterans Day. Jobless claims remain one of the brightest spots on the economic calendar.

Reality. Last week had Veteran’s Day in it and government offices were closed. Despite that, the unadjusted actual number of claims increased by 28,808 people during the week. There were 3.8 million people who made Emergency Unemployment Claims during that week. Thousands are falling off those rolls every week as they have simply been out of work for too long. And all 3.8 million are going to lose their benefits by the end of the month unless those benefits are extended yet again.

Any number greater than 350k reflects a loss of jobs – period. And as Mish’s article I linked yesterday shows, the number of people truly unemployed is far greater than what’s being reported – 6 million in the past year.

So called “Leading” Indicators and the Philly Fed Index are released at 10 Eastern this morning.

Yesterday the VIX closed back inside the range of its Bollinger Bands thus producing a market buy signal:

Note that the Bollingers were narrow, and thus it didn’t take much movement to send the VIX outside of the range. This set up for me is indicative of a bounce in the market, but not necessarily a change of trend. It was noted in our daily thread yesterday that a VIX buy signal preceded the Flash Crash last May by about one week:

Indeed, stock prices are about the same exact place as they were then – similar setup with prices sliding, then a bounce, then the real selling wiped off 1,000 DOW points in 15 minutes. No two moves are ever identical and I don’t expect that now, but I do think that the entire rally since QE was announced is false and will be undone.

There are still bearish divergences in the longer time frame and the stochastic is divergent from price still on this decline even though it is approaching oversold.

The dollar and euro are finding respective resistance and support on their channel boundaries. It’s still in question as to whether or not those boundaries break – if they do then the down move in the dollar was an a,b,c – but if not then it may be a 5 wave move:

I think the action of the week belongs to the municipal bond market where rates are skyrocketing and prices got pummeled. They did recover some, but so far just a fraction. And yesterday the city of Philadelphia’s debt got downgraded as did San Francisco’s. Of course this occurs AFTER the market has pummeled their bonds – the rating agencies are again WORSE THAN WORTHLESS as their conflicted and corrupt business models cause great distortion and harm to our economy.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/17

Good Morning,

Equity futures are roughly flat this morning following yesterday’s very powerful 93% volume down day. The dollar and bonds are also roughly flat, while oil and gold are up just a little. It’s typical to pause after such a powerful move and it appears that we are moving sideways, possibly creating a flag, just above support at DOW 11,000.

The still worthless Purchase Applications report from the hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association showed a dramatic falloff in both purchase (-5.5%) and refinance (-16.5%) activity, for a composite loss of 14.4%. Here’s Econoday:
Purchase activity, after two prior weeks of strength, slowed in the November 12 week, down 5.0 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinance activity fell 16.5 percent. MBA blamed the drops, especially for refinancing, to a surge in rates including an 18 basis point jump for 30-year loans to an average 4.46 percent.

And there you have it. The surge in rates followed the QE2 announcement which means that the Fed’s actions are causing direct harm.

Housing Starts for October just released came in as a complete disaster. September was reported at 610,000, the consensus was looking for 590,000, but the actual came in at only 519,000! This number is only a fraction of peak, yet another depression era print:
Homebuilders appear to be more pessimistic about the housing sector as housing starts dropped significantly in October. Housing starts in October fell 11.7 percent, following a downwardly revised 4.2 percent decline the month before (previously up 0.3 percent). The October annualized pace of 0.519 million units was notably lower than analysts' forecast for 0.590 million units and is down 1.9 percent on a year-ago basis. The dip in October was led by a monthly 43.5 percent plunge in multifamily starts, following a 19.2 percent decrease in September. The single-family component slipped 1.1 percent after edging up 2.1 percent the prior month.

But looking ahead, the outlook is not so negative but is still soft. Permits edged up in October, rising 0.2 percent after declining 4.2 percent in September. Overall permits came in at an annualized rate of 0.550 million units and are down 4.5 percent on a year-ago basis. The rebound was led by the single family component which was up 0.5 percent while multifamily permits eased 0.7 percent.

Due to continued concern over excessive supply and potential additions from pending foreclosures, homebuilders remain extremely cautious about new construction with starts remaining new record lows.

Note how all of the sudden all the reports have turned negative with big negative revisions? Contrast that with how they magically levitated just prior to the elections. Nothing is real anymore in the economy and markets, it’s all a central banker led circus. In fact, I’m beginning to view the markets less in the technical sense and more in the banker sense – not political, BANKER. By this I mean that all one has to do is to look at whether the bankers are getting their way at robbing, hiding, and committing FRAUD. If they are getting their way, then the markets go up… when they want something (like Ireland to take on more debt) then markets begin to sink as a threat of imminent implosion if they don’t get their way, and markets do actually implode if they don’t get their way like in ’08 when mark-to-fantasy accounting was temporarily halted. This new market view sees politicians as simply an obscuring interface between the banks and the public who are being manipulated and robbed.

Meanwhile the latest holographic economic report comes with the CPI following the PPI in being both flat month over month, and in being lower than expected at the core level. The month to month consensus was looking for a .4% rise, and the actual came in at .2%. Less food & energy it was flat. Of course these numbers are contrived. Here’s Econoday:
Headline inflation worsened but only marginally and less than forecast. The overall CPI in October posted a 0.2 percent boost, following a 0.1 percent rise in September. The market consensus had expected a 0.4 percent boost for the latest month. Excluding food and energy, CPI inflation was unchanged for the third month in a row. Analysts had projected a 0.1 percent rise for October.

By major components, energy increased a strong 2.6 percent, following a 0.7 percent boost in September. Most of the latest gain was from a 4.6 percent surge in gasoline prices. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 90 percent of the CPI increase came from the increase in gasoline. Food slowed to a 0.1 percent rise after gaining 0.3 percent the month before.

Weakness in the core was led by declines in indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, apparel, recreation, and tobacco. Also, shelter rose only 0.1 percent.

Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation firmed to 1.2 (seasonally adjusted) from 1.1 percent September. The core rate in September slipped to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent the prior month. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 1.2 percent in October while the core was up 0.6 percent.

On the news, Treasury yields eased marginally. Today's report corroborates the view by many at the Fed that inflation is too low as the core has been flat for three months. Nonetheless, consumers are noticing higher gasoline prices and not noticing weak shelter costs. But other components in the core showing declines support the Fed's concern about price weakness in the economy. With lower than expected housing starts also out this morning, the odds of continued QE2 went up.

Food only rose .1%? Wow, they must be measuring price on planet Morgan.

And the problem with QE is obvious. They can’t control where the flood of money goes – where it’s not going is your wages or to pay down your debt – the two places it’s needed. Where it is going is straight out of the country, and into oil and other commodities where it works against the people who need those things to live. Businesses also use those things as inputs, and thus margin compression is occurring.

And so, the latest gimmick to manipulate and control the price of everything is to tamper with the margin requirement! The latest margin adjustment this morning comes to, get this, Irish debt! That’s right, for the second time in two weeks, Clearnet is increasing margin requirement for Irish government bonds (Clearnet Announces Management of Sovereign Credit Risk for RepoClear Service).

What effect will this have? Well, it will make it harder to buy Irish debt on margin, which could spike borrowing costs higher! This also happened just prior to the last surge. Is it intentional? You bet – it forces Ireland’s hand – remember, take the DEBT (“rescue”) or else!

Who is LCH.Clearnet?

“LCH.Clearnet is the leading independent clearing house group, serving major international exchanges and platforms, as well as a range of OTC markets. It clears a broad range of asset classes including: securities, exchange traded derivatives, commodities, energy, freight, interest rate swaps, credit default swaps and euro and sterling denominated bonds and repos; and works closely with market participants and exchanges to identify and develop clearing services for new asset classes.

LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd is owned 83% by users and 17% by exchanges.”

And who are those users and who owns the exchanges? Well, with a little bit deeper research we find that in 1980 “Ownership of LCH passes to a consortium of six British Banks.”

And there you have it. Take our DEBT OR ELSE (we crash the entire planet).

Note how completely obscure they show the ownership trail, and yet it comes right back around to the same bankers – it always does.

For now Ireland is holding out strong, as they should – GO PEOPLE OF IRELAND, TELL THE BANKERS TO PISS OFF! And let’s remember that one of the main reasons Ireland is so in debt is that the country came to the rescue of the BANKS! The people of Ireland didn’t get a say in that – they simply did it, indebting them without permission and without representation. Now the banks want the people to commit to paying new debt forever and ever. FORGET IT.

And if that’s not clearly happening here, then I don’t know what is. Yet we are so blinded we can’t even see it much less act on it like the people of Iceland and Ireland.

But our day will come – you see now we’re talking massive austerity as the money for more unemployment benefits and food stamps runs out. And if you haven’t read Mish’s latest on how more than 6 million jobs disappeared in the past year, then you should follow this link and see for yourself just how whack our job situation is and how underreported the statistics are: 6 Million Benefit Paying Jobs Vanish in One Year!

And disgustingly, yesterday late afternoon we learned that today the House is going to attempt a VETO override vote in order to implement HR-3808. This would create a stealth bailout of the banks who committed FRAUD by allowing interstate electronic signature. This must be stopped AGAIN, so please call your representative ASAP this morning if you can, and let them know in no uncertain terms that you will remember this treasonous act in 2012, just as you remember those who voted for TARP: Find Your Representative

This is just one of many attempts to sweep foreclosuregate under the rug… hold your state representatives feet to the fire as well, tell them to prosecute the banks for their FRAUD! Do not let them get away with it, we will NOT have a thriving economy again until the FRAUD is prosecuted!

And as sickening as that is, I almost couldn’t contain the puke this morning when I read the following:
Buffett to Uncle Sam: Thanks

NEW YORK ( -- Financial titan Warren Buffett praised the U.S. government's response to the financial crisis Wednesday, writing in an open letter addressed to "Uncle Sam" that Washington responded well to a "destructive economic force unlike any seen for generations."

"People will second-guess your specific decisions; you can always count on that. But just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of panic -- and, overall, your actions were remarkably effective," Buffett said in an op-ed published in the New York Times.

After describing corporate America in September 2008 as a series of dominoes "ready to topple at lightning speed," Buffett paints the U.S. government as the backstop preventing collapse.

"Only one counterforce was available, and that was you, Uncle Sam," Buffett wrote. "Yes, you are often clumsy, even inept. But when businesses and people worldwide race to get liquid, you are the only party with the resources to take the other side of the transaction."

Members of both the Obama and Bush administrations earn specific praise from Buffett.

"In the darkest of days, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and Sheila Bair grasped the gravity of the situation and acted with courage and dispatch," Buffett writes. "And though I never voted for George W. Bush, I give him great credit for leading, even as Congress postured and squabbled."

HURL! This from a man with no spine, a TRAITOR to his country – he took BILLIONS from U.S. taxpayers by getting in bed with Goldman Sachs and then lobbying for taxpayer backed bailouts. Buffett belongs in PRISON with the rest of the criminals, this type of public pandering is simply sickening. It is brainwashing, plain and simple, and it is the reason that the people of the United States are blinded by the bullshit instead of rising up to do what is RIGHT. Disgusting.

So, what is the market doing? Is it a wave 4 before higher, or is it going down in earnest? Too soon to tell, but wave 4’s usually don’t contain 90%+ down days coupled with sovereign debt problems and imploding municipal bond markets!

Yesterday’s selling came on good volume and was powerful. It stopped just short of DOW 11,000 and its 50dma. In the SPX weekly chart the double-top looks ominous. Remember, the wider they are, the deeper the coming decline:

The DOW triggered a new sell signal on the Point & Figure diagram targeting 10,500:

Yesterday the VIX broke out higher and closed above the upper Bollinger band. This sets up a market buy signal that will be triggered once the VIX returns back inside the Bollinger’s range:

This breakout in the VIX yesterday produced an initial bullish VIX P&F target of 33.5:

So, for now we just have to watch key levels, realizing that the markets are manipulated beyond words by the bankers. I see it as our DUTY to remove the bankers from power – we owe that to future generations.