Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 8, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strengthoutperformed the S&P 500 by 144 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 8, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
92 Russia MV, RSX
92 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
91 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
90 Energy Global, IXC
89 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
89 South Korea Index, EWY
88 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
87 Sweden Index, EWD
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
85 South Africa Index, EZA
84 Canada Index, EWC
83 Microcap Russell, IWC
82 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
80 Germany Index, EWG
80 Indonesia MV, IDX
79 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
78 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
77 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
77 Biotech SPDR, XBI
76 Australia Index, EWA
75 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
75 Austria Index, EWO
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
73 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
73 Netherlands Index, EWN
72 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
71 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
69 Mexico Index, EWW
68 Materials SPDR, XLB
68 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
67 Emerging Markets, EEM
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
65 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
65 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
64 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
63 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
63 Malaysia Index, EWM
62 France Index, EWQ
61 EMU Europe Index, EZU
61 Belgium Index, EWK
60 Water Resources, PHO
59 Taiwan Index, EWT
58 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
58 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
57 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
56 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
56 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
55 Italy Index, EWI
54 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
54 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
53 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
52 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
51 Dividend International, PID
51 Value VIPERs, VTV
50 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
49 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
49 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
48 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
47 Growth VIPERs, VUG
46 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
45 Hong Kong Index, EWH
44 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
44 Switzerland Index, EWL
43 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
42 United Kingdom Index, EWU
42 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
41 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
40 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
39 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
38 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
37 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
37 European VIPERs, VGK
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
35 Latin Am 40, ILF
35 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
34 REIT Wilshire, RWR
33 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
32 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
32 Networking, IGN
31 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
30 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
30 Singapore Index, EWS
29 Global 100, IOO
28 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
27 Spain Index, EWP
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
25 Brazil Index, EWZ
25 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
24 China 25 iS, FXI
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
23 Technology SPDR, XLK
22 Financials VIPERs, VFH
21 Technology DJ US, IYW
20 Dividend SPDR, SDY
20 Financial DJ US, IYF
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
18 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
18 Financial SPDR, XLF
17 Financial Services DJ, IYG
16 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
15 India Earnings WTree, EPI
15 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 India PS, PIN
13 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
10 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
9 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
8 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
8 Bond, TIPS, TIP
7 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Corp, LQD
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Japan Index, EWJ
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strengthoutperformed the S&P 500 by 144 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 8, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
92 Russia MV, RSX
92 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
91 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
90 Energy Global, IXC
89 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
89 South Korea Index, EWY
88 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
87 Sweden Index, EWD
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
85 South Africa Index, EZA
84 Canada Index, EWC
83 Microcap Russell, IWC
82 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
80 Germany Index, EWG
80 Indonesia MV, IDX
79 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
78 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
77 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
77 Biotech SPDR, XBI
76 Australia Index, EWA
75 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
75 Austria Index, EWO
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
73 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
73 Netherlands Index, EWN
72 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
71 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
69 Mexico Index, EWW
68 Materials SPDR, XLB
68 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
67 Emerging Markets, EEM
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
65 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
65 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
64 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
63 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
63 Malaysia Index, EWM
62 France Index, EWQ
61 EMU Europe Index, EZU
61 Belgium Index, EWK
60 Water Resources, PHO
59 Taiwan Index, EWT
58 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
58 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
57 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
56 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
56 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
55 Italy Index, EWI
54 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
54 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
53 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
52 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
51 Dividend International, PID
51 Value VIPERs, VTV
50 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
49 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
49 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
48 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
47 Growth VIPERs, VUG
46 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
45 Hong Kong Index, EWH
44 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
44 Switzerland Index, EWL
43 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
42 United Kingdom Index, EWU
42 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
41 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
40 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
39 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
38 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
37 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
37 European VIPERs, VGK
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
35 Latin Am 40, ILF
35 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
34 REIT Wilshire, RWR
33 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
32 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
32 Networking, IGN
31 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
30 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
30 Singapore Index, EWS
29 Global 100, IOO
28 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
27 Spain Index, EWP
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
25 Brazil Index, EWZ
25 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
24 China 25 iS, FXI
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
23 Technology SPDR, XLK
22 Financials VIPERs, VFH
21 Technology DJ US, IYW
20 Dividend SPDR, SDY
20 Financial DJ US, IYF
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
18 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
18 Financial SPDR, XLF
17 Financial Services DJ, IYG
16 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
15 India Earnings WTree, EPI
15 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 India PS, PIN
13 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
10 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
9 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
8 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
8 Bond, TIPS, TIP
7 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Corp, LQD
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Japan Index, EWJ
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT