Robin Griffiths - Using Schumpeter's Cycles

Great Market calls, using interlocking cycles

Great interview with Robin Griffiths with Eric King:

Robin Griffiths Interview/ Friday, June 25, 2010
Robin Griffiths is Cazenove Capital Management’s Private Wealth Strategist - Robin has 44 years investment experience and is considered to be one of the top strategists in the world.

He has used the cycles of some classical economists to call the markets well.
And since he comments match up with my own views, I wanted to dive more deeply into the techniques that he is using.

He starts with the big cycles, and fits the smaller ones inside:

He starts with the big cycles, and fits the smaller ones inside:

+ Keynes does not work, Schumpeter's cycles do work !
+ 10 years (Juglar) and 4 year cycle fit inside
+ Seasonal pattern: Apr/May top, fall, rally into summer, fall slide

+ Worst decline comes next year, could take out 2009 Lows
+ By 2011, they will have fired best shoots, they will not have worked
+ If 2009 lows are broken: it will rhyme with 1930's depression
+ We have seen "1929 crash", and "1930's recovery": "we are talking depression"
+ Deflation is present reality, risk of inflation comes later : may snap in
+ US is following Japan's pattern; painful - takes a long time
+ US Housing slide will lead the double dip
. . .
+ Gold "is working as money... will keep you wealthy": $5,000-7,000 possible
+ Gold's bull market lasted 10 years, but is not over-owned yet
+ Barbell strategy of holding Gold and Bonds has been working
+ Major miners run soon? If so, will be followed by rally in minor companies
+ Dollar top should be about 88-90, then follows to maybe 60, Not done yet?
+ Bonds still in bull mkt., a yield of 4.84% is the breakpont (4% on TNX?)
+ Rmb and Rupee will dominate in the future, as Chinese demand grows
. . .
+ Called SPX top on 18th April, within a just a few days of actual high
+ Mid summer rally is coming early, should peak by July 26th
+ Rally peak should not be more than SPX-1150
+ September could be worst month, with low in Oct. (950?)
+ Steeper drop should be coming in 2011
+ For UK, July top of 5500 & the October low should by 4500

And this too also sent in by Shaza from one of our favorites The woman is a dynamic research assistant and works for free. What more can I ask for?

 Monthly Moving Averages: Current Update 
June 30, 2010  Valid until the market close on July 30, 2010