Many of you have heard GAW talk about Merv Burak. Well this is his free newsletter so take what you can from it. Charts can be found on the link below or you can get a regular email if you sign up for his free newsletter at http://preciousmetalscentral.com. It is sent via .pdf file so I cannot copy and paste them. Go to this link below and I know it will work. Queenbee
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Technically Precious with Merv
For week ending 20 May 2011
It seems that speculators just are not sure where to go with gold. The continued Middle East
upheaval has become sort of a ho-hum thing. What do we need next to move the darn metal?
The hesitation suggests that the next major up move may still be some time away.
GOLD
LONG TERM
Despite the ho-hum nature of the recent action the long term prognosis for gold has not
changed. We still have the price of gold above its positive moving average line. We still have
the long term momentum indicator in its positive zone but still below its negative sloping trigger
line. The volume indicator continues to track in a lateral direction and remains above its
positive trigger line. Putting it all together the long term rating remains BULLISH.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
Things are not much different in the intermediate term, although it is much closer to a possible
turn around. Although the price of gold had dropped below its intermediate term moving
average line earlier in the week the line remained positive and the price quickly moved back
above the line, where it closed on Friday. The intermediate term momentum indicator
remained in its positive zone throughout the week but had been mostly below its negative
sloping trigger line. On Friday it did move above the trigger but the trigger line slope remained
negative. As for the volume indicator, it had been moving above and below its trigger line and
closed on Friday just above the trigger. The trigger here has remained positive throughout.
Putting it all together the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH. This is confirmed by the
short term moving average line remaining just slightly above the intermediate term line.
SHORT TERM
The short term seems to have gone into a holding pattern once the first plunge was over.
Although not a certainty I look at these plunges with a view to seeing if there is a bottom to
them. Usually, if the plunge is not the precursor to something more serious, the low of the
initial plunge and the high of its quick bounce set the stage for the boundaries of a lateral
move. As I said, it’s not a certainty but something to start with. The chart shows these lower
and upper limits. We are now waiting to see if the upper (resistance) level will hold or if the
rebound goes even further. For now let’s see where we actually are.
The price of gold has been moving in a basic sideways drift for about two weeks now. As such
it is inevitable that the price and the short term indicators will start to oscillate above and below
their respective moving averages or trigger lines. As of the Friday close the price is once more
crossed above its short term moving average line and the line has also just very slightly turned
to the up side. The short term momentum indicator has once more moved into its positive
zone and closed the week above a now positive trigger line. As for the daily volume activity,
that is still relatively low although it looks like it is starting to perk up a little. Overall, the short
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term
rating is now BULLISH but could change very quickly with a day’s worth of negative market
action. The very short term moving average line remains below the short term line and has not
yet confirmed this short term bull.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, today that looks very much like the up side
but not too enthusiastically. It may have a day or two to goi before reaching that upper
resistance level. After that, who knows?
SILVER
Silver seems to have taken a more critical plunge than gold and it is not rebounding as gold is.
Maybe just too many speculators have jumped on silver and now are having second thoughts?
The long term indicators are still in their positive zones but only slightly. The long term rating
remains BULLISH for now.
The intermediate term, however, is not all that bright. The price remains below its negative
sloping intermediate term moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its
negative zone just slightly below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator has now firmed
up a bit but is still below its negative trigger line. The intermediate term rating is BEARISH,
confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
On the short term we are in a transition phase. The price has just crossed back above its short
term moving average line although the line has not yet turned to the up side. The momentum
indicator has crossed above its trigger line with the line turning up but both are still inside the
negative zone. The daily volume action remains low. For Friday, the short term rating has
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improved to a + NEUTRAL rating just below a full bull. The very short term moving average
line remains just slightly below the short term line suggesting that a full bull rating was not yet
appropriate.
PRECIOUS METAL STOCKS
I guess the Penny Arcade Index says just about all there is to say about the precious metal
stocks. Not that they are all moving lower, most advanced during the week, but that with the
pennies in a serious down trend the universe cannot be far behind. The speculative and
gambling variety of stocks are usually the first to get dumped by the speculators before they
start to dump their better variety of stocks. Anyway, this is a WARNING, not a forgone
conclusion as to what will happen to the universe ahead.
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Well, that’s it for this week. Comments are always welcome and should be addressed to
mervburak@gmail.com.
Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for
Merv’s Precious Metals Central
22 May 2011
For DAILY Uranium stock commentary and WEEKLY Uranium market update check out my new Technically
Uranium with Merv blog at http://techuranium.blogspot.com.
During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun
goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician (CMT)
and tries to decipher what’s going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of
Canada’s Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several
Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv’s driving focus is to
KEEP IT SIMPLE.
To find out more about Merv’s various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit
http://preciousmetalscentral.com. There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus
other publications of interest to gold investors.
Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a
Qualified Professional Market Technician