Memorial Day and our 'military tribe'

May 27, 2011 (McClatchy-Tribune News Service via COMTEX) -- The Memorial Day weekend is a time when we remember the nation's shared sacrifices in war. All told since 1775, more than 1.2 million Americans have made the ultimate sacrifice in our nation's conflicts.


Over the decades, however, the shared element of this sacrifice has waned. Although Americans have been wonderfully supportive of their service members in the recent conflicts, many have also observed that, with few exceptions, the nation's elites _ the politically powerful, office and rank-holders, influential, wealthy and highly educated among us _ do not typically have their children at risk in today's wars. Whether an inevitable result of our military becoming an all-volunteer force, or perhaps some deeper cultural movement, the trend has been growing relentlessly for decades.

In our politically polarized society of today this phenomenon has provided yet another political battleground for competing visions about the country's values and her future. The political left focuses on "chicken hawks," conservative politicians who advocate aggressive military action but without having ever personally served in uniform. The political right focuses on those progressives or liberal elites that use politics or declared conscience as an excuse for not serving as having demonstrated a "dereliction of duty." Regardless of the ideological merits of these arguments, neither group has allowed its children to serve. Among members of Congress, for example, whether Democrat or Republican, only a handful have children in the military.

But is there is one group among our great nation's leaders and elites whose children are very much at risk. The children of those in the military itself. Many of the generals and admirals who lead our armed forces today have children who are also serving.

Indeed, studies have shown that one of the strongest indicators for whether someone will join the U.S. military today is whether they have a parent who has served. A recent government study found that more than 61 percent of the Marines serving in Iraq in 2004 had at least one parent who was or had been in the military. I saw this vividly myself during my last tour in Iraq. Half of the senior officers on our command staff had children that were in the military, many of them deployed to combat at the same time as their parent.

Military service has become a family tradition and collectively these families have formed a small "military tribe" within our broader society.

Spouses from the outside quickly assimilate when they marry into this warrior tribe. They learn first about the military culture _ the rank structures, moving between bases and stations, commissaries and post exchanges, field exercises and deployment orders. They also learn, as one military wife noted, that the spouse associations were not about proper etiquette at social events but about family separation, anxiety and fear of loss and sometimes tragedy.

Because with service comes sacrifice. The son of Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the former U.S. commander in Iraq, lost an arm in combat. The son of Army Gen. Mark Graham was killed in action. Beyond these high-profile examples of loss, numerous colonels, sergeants major and first sergeants have seen their children hurt or killed in war.

Their grief has not manifested itself in public displays that are too often the face of grief that get broadcast to the world. Instead, these families nearly always say the same thing: military service was what our child wanted to do, we are very proud, and we miss them terribly. Not long ago an old Marine friend learned that his son had been killed in Afghanistan. Can pride in a son's service ever compensate for a father's loss and grief? Some things are in the hands of God.

I hope that on this Memorial Day we can for a moment think about our military tribe. Families that at their core are not much different from other American families, the nation entrusts them with its safety and security and its future as a free people. They comprise less than 1 percent of our citizenry but bear disproportionately the burden of sacrifice.

___ ABOUT THE WRITER Marine Col. Mark F. Cancian, retired, served in Vietnam, the Gulf War and Iraq. His two sons who are Marines have served in Afghanistan.

BHP Charts

These were sent in by Shaza

Two charts to study: BHP: BHP Billiton

Here are two charts of BHP. The chart with Long and Short timing can also be read as Buy and Sell. They are based on average true range and taken from Charles Kirk's Charts as for as the parameters on the ATR. As you can see BHP has not given a Buy ( Long) signal yet, but is turning up.

The second chart which shows price compared to S&P ( yellow Line) shows that BHP has outperformed the market of late. The indicators below the chart show decent technicals and that money is coming back in to BHP.

The Blue VWAP line shows that price is moving up nicely. With GS saying commodities are a buy, BHP should do well as the largest diversified mining company on the planet with good fundamentals as well. Keep in mind that the size f BHP means that price will move slowly. The 50 day historic volatility is 22...the S&P is about 9 so BHP will not move fast. APPLE is 17 and Biotechs are about 40 on average.  HV of 100 + is crazy!

1 year 18%
3 year 3.3%
5 years 11%
10 years 18.9%



Shaza I am just going to post the links about SLV. The readers can look at John Lee's analysis on Stock Twits.
Final Hour $SLV Trade – The MA “Tipping Point” + Descending Wedge | Charts Gone Wild


http://chartsgonewild.com/2011/05/03/final-hour-slv-trade-the-ma-tipping-point-descending-wedge/

While this chart dates waaaaay back to May 26 ( forever in day trading) it provides a great lesson in chart reading, enjoy and learn! JL is fantastic! He is  brave and extremely disciplined and all executions are planned. 
Shaza

And as an encore "A Lesson on Silver, Stability, and the Sigma Bands" From "Afraid to Trade Blog"

Many investors were taken sharply by surprise initially by the stellar run-up in Silver prices, and then perhaps more so by the dramatic collapse in prices after the period of euphoria and instability.
But how do you define “instability” and “euphoria” objectively?
Let’s learn a lesson from Silver’s Sigma (Standard Deviation) Bands and see what they had to say about the stable rise that morphed into a multi-day unstable rise ahead of the violent collapse.

Weekend Open Thread...



Japan Ends 25 Months of Deflation in Victory Marred by Quake-Led Recession

Most recent article sent to me by Shaza


Japan’s policy makers, striving for more than two years to end deflation, refrained from calling a victory after prices rose in April, with an economic recession damping the nation’s outlook.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose an annual 0.6 percent, the first gain since 2008, the statistics bureau said. Economy MinisterKaoru Yosano indicated today’s data don’t signal sustained gains. Japan’s challenges were highlighted by Fitch Ratings cutting its sovereign-rating outlook, citing the risk of rising debt on post-earthquake reconstruction.
The Bank of Japan is poised to keep its monetary stimulus, contrasting with counterparts from China to India that are tightening policy to stem inflation. Prices climbed in Japan after global energy and food costs rose and retailers suffered product shortages in the aftermath of a record earthquake and tsunami that caused the economy to shrink in the first quarter.
“The BOJ will probably add stimulus if it sees more signs of weakening demand,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “If you strip out energy and food costs, consumer prices are basically flat now.”
The increase in consumer prices in April, the first since 2008, matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists.

Retail Sales

Retail sales fell 4.8 percent from a year earlier in April, the Trade Ministry said in a separate report released today, underscoring the impact on consumers from the March disaster. The drop reinforces forecasts for gross domestic product to shrink for a third straight quarter in the three months to June.
Government bonds rose, with 10-year yields falling to 1.125 percent after the report, from 1.15 percent late yesterday, in a sign investors don’t see inflation taking hold of the world’s third-largest economy. They were little changed at 1.120 percent as of 4:26 p.m. in Tokyo. A gauge of the outlook for consumer prices over the coming seven years, derived from the gap in yields between regular bonds and inflation-linked securities, indicates average annual declines of 0.26 percent.
“A price gain in April isn’t likely to alter expectations that the BOJ will ease policy,” Maiko Noguchi, an economist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets in Tokyo, said before today’s reports. “It’ll take time for Japan’s consumer prices to show solid and sustainable gains, which we probably won’t see until next year.”

Shirakawa’s Pledge

Governor Masaaki Shirakawa this week repeated the bank’s readiness to take more action if needed. His board discussed the potential need to expand an emergency-lending program to quake- stricken lenders on April 28. The board left its key lending rate near zero and other policy tools unchanged at that meeting as well as at this month’s gathering.
“We can’t say Japan’s experiencing inflation with a 0.6 percent increase” in core consumer prices, Yosano told reporters in Tokyo today.
Meantime, Fitch Ratings said in its statement today that Japan’s economy is at risk of companies considering relocating outside the nation in the aftermath of the March catastrophe, “leading to a greater permanent loss of output.” Fitch, which revised the outlook for its AA- long-term local-currency rating for Japan to negative from stable, urged policy makers to put forward a “more credible” debt consolidation plan.

Oil Costs

Part of the increase in the cost of living in April stemmed from the advance in global commodities. Crude oil prices have climbed 20 percent in the past six months, contributing to inflation that’s prompted countries from Thailand to China to raise borrowing costs.
Nisshin Foods Inc. this week announced a plan to raise prices of flour and pasta from July after the government increased wheat prices by 18 percent in April. The commodity has appreciated 40 percent in value this past year.
Rising costs of daily necessities “are spurring concerns that price hikes may further dampen consumption,” which has already slumped in the wake of the March 11 disaster, said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.
A temporary shortage of consumer products after the quake also contributed to April’s price gains, said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. Even so, “price increases triggered by supply constrains will be temporary,” he said.

Tuition Waiver

Core prices also rose in April because the effect of a waiver that makes public high-school tuition free adopted in same month last year, which pushed down consumer prices, wore off. Prices may be depressed later this year when the government rebases the index, meaning that an increase in April won’t affect the bank’s inclination to loosen policy, said Daiwa’s Noguchi.
BOJ board members predicted last month core prices will probably rise 0.7 percent in the year to March 2012, higher than from their January forecast of 0.3 percent. The bank said the predictions don’t reflect the effect of a calculation method rebasing which will “highly likely” push down inflation rates.
The board members said they consider price increases of up to 2 percent as stable, with their median at about 1 percent. The bank has pledged to keep policy accommodative until it can expect stable prices.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net

Morning Update/ Market Thread 5/27 - Money for Nothing Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are higher once again in the face of obviously weakening data. The dollar is lower of course, bonds are a little lower, oil is higher, gold & silver are higher, and food commodities are mixed.

Stocks have been in a downtrend for most of May, but it has been a mild decline, one that looks like a wave 4. That means we will likely see a fifth wave higher, and that could start at any time. There is a clear down channel, or descending wedge, and breaking the upper boundary will likely signal that fifth wave higher has begun. Below is a 30 minute chart of the SPX:



According to McHugh, this fifth wave may take us to new highs and it could put in a very long decades long top as can be seen in this decade long expanding megaphone top of the DOW:



Personal Income and Outlays were reported for April, matching expectations with consumer spending basically matching small increases in income, but neither keeping up with actual inflation as the squeeze continues due to the money for nothing policies of the magical and mystical all-knowing “Fed.” Here’s Econohope acting as if these numbers have any basis in reality – they don’t as any number made “real” by the “Fed” is vastly distorted to cover up their money debauching ways:
Highlights
Income growth continued to support the consumer sector in April. Spending was moderately strong but largely due to higher prices. Notably, inflation is still on the warm side. As the report's biggest positive, personal income in April posted a 0.4 percent gain equaling the pace in March and matching analysts' forecast. Importantly, the key wages & salaries component increased 0.4 percent, following a boost of 0.3 percent in March.

Spending looks healthy at face value but inflation was the underlying factor for the most part. Personal consumption expenditures expanded at a 0.4 percent rise in April after increasing 0.5 percent the month before. The consensus expected a 0.4 percent gain. Providing upward lift was another sizeable increase in gasoline sales. But real spending has been soft recently, rising 0.1 percent in April and in March after a 0.4 percent jump in February.

Strength in nominal PCEs was largely in nondurables, up 0.8 percent after a 0.9 percent jump in March. Durables rebounded 0.3 percent, following a 0.7 percent drop the month before. Services spending slowed to a 0.2 percent increase after a 0.6 percent jump in March.

Energy is keeping overall inflation on the high side. The headline PCE price index posted a 0.3 percent gain, down marginally from 0.4 percent in March but still strong. However, the core rate firmed to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent in March.

On a year-ago basis, headline PCE inflation worsened to 2.2 percent from 1.8 percent in March. Core PCE price inflation edged up to 1.0 percent on a year-ago basis from 0.9 percent in March. Core inflation has been on an uptrend since the recent year-ago low of 0.7 percent in December 2010.

Year on year, personal income growth for April posted at 4.4 percent, compared to 4.8 percent the prior month. PCEs growth rose a year-ago 4.8 percent, up from 4.4 percent the prior month.

The good news is that income growth remains moderately strong. The bad news is that inflation has eaten into those earnings and has restrained real spending. The slowing in real spending may be transitory (a recently favorite word among Fed officials) but softer inflation and healthier income growth are needed.

No, what’s needed is level prices to go along with level incomes that can support sustainable levels of debt. The only way to do that is to get rid of the private central banker's rob-your-productive-efforts, fraud based paradigm.

At least this piece from Bloomberg on the issue is a little bit closer to reality on the health of the “consumer:”
U.S. Consumer Spending Climbed Less Than Forecast in April

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. climbed less than forecast in April as food and fuel prices rose, a sign that faster income gains are necessary to boost the biggest part of the economy.

Purchases rose 0.4 percent after a revised 0.5 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The increase compared with the 0.5 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Incomes climbed 0.4 percent, matching the median forecast.

Retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are feeling the pinch as higher grocery and energy bills force households to cut back on less essential items. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is among central bankers who predict the acceleration in commodity prices will be temporary, providing some relief for Americans whose spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

“When you account for higher food and energy prices there’s barely anything left for consumers” to buy, said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who accurately forecast the April gain in spending. “We need to see job growth pick up and we need to see commodity prices continue to cool.”

“Consumer” Sentiment and Pending Home Sales will be released at 10 Eastern. We'll cover those inside today's Daily Thread, so please check back later for those.

I could yammer endlessly about the impossible math of Europe, but impossible is impossible and the people of Europe will continue to be led down the primrose path until they tell the central bankers to pound sand.

The suffering in Japan continues, three nuclear meltdowns, massive contamination and still Nero fiddles.

As long as the bankers are allowed to print, they will continue to spin reality into their own warped, marketing all the time, Prozac, Viagra, never ending debt, world of lost economic prosperity and environmental disasters. Just look at them yo-yo's...